BSE Sensex up 150 points amid volatility; banks support

18 Sep 2013

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3:30 FII view: This is a strong time for equities, that are likely to be in the green post the Fed's decision on tapering its bond buying program (Quantitative Easing 3), says Richard Gibbs, global head, Macquarie Securities. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Gibbs says that he expects more clarity from the Fed and that a decision would be taken to strengthen the Fed's forward guidance. ''That will involve at one instance the dropping of the unemployment rate target from 6.5 percent to 6 percent and will also giving a bit more clarity in relation to the whole asset purchase programme and the exit strategy for the Federal Reserve,'' he adds.

The market has managed to make some movements in the last hour of trading. The Sensex is up 140.48 points or 0.71 percent at 19944.51, and the Nifty up 45.15 points or 0.77 percent at 5895.35. About 1114 shares have advanced, 1107 shares declined, and 164 shares are unchanged. Tata Power, NTPC,  SBI, HUL and Dr Reddys Labs are top gainers in the Sensex. On the losing side are BHEL, Hero Motocorp, Sesa Goa, HDFC and M&M.

Polaris rallied 3 percent as a media report suggests that the software firm is in talks to sell services business to Japan's NEC Corporation. The deal with NEC could possibly value the services division at USD 400-450 million.

This is higher than what Tech Mahindra was reportedly to have valued Polaris' services business, the report says. Strides Arcolab gained 2.5 percent as Mylan believes that the warning letter to Agila will not have any material impact to its overall combined financial assumptions and it expects Agila and Mylan to cumulatively resolve the issue. Mylan expects to close the deal by Q4CY13 as per plans since it has got all the major approvals from regulatory bodies.

02:55pm Market Update The market extended gains with the Sensex rising more than 100 points amid choppy trade, aided by index heavyweights ITC and Reliance Industries that gained more than 1 percent. The Sensex is up 108.96 points at 19912.99, and the Nifty is up 34.70 points at 5884.90. Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank advanced 1-2 percent. Private sector lender HDFC Bank rose 0.7 percent after recouping losses. However, HDFC lost over 1 percent. BHEL shares lost the most in the Sensex, falling nearly 6 percent.

02:45pm Stocks in News Polaris rallied 3 percent as a media report suggests that the software firm is in talks to sell services business to Japan's NEC Corporation. The deal with NEC could possibly value the services division at USD 400-450 million. This is higher than what Tech Mahindra was reportedly to have valued Polaris' services business, the report says. Strides Arcolab gained 2.5 percent as Mylan believes that the warning letter to Agila will not have any material impact to its overall combined financial assumptions and it expects Agila and Mylan to cumulatively resolve the issue. Mylan expects to close the deal by Q4CY13 as per plans since it has got all the major approvals from regulatory bodies.

MCX shares plunged more than 7 percent as FMC sources told CNBC-TV18 that Financial Technologies group's representation is set to reduce to one on mcx board from four now. MCX will be run like a public institution where board controlled by institutional shareholders, say sources.

02:27pm Equity benchmarks are volatile as investors are on the sidelines ahead of conclusion from the two-day FOMC meeting ending tonight today. The Sensex is up 59.65 points at 19863.68, and the Nifty is up 18.35 points at 5868.55. The market breadth is flat. This is a strong time for equities, that are likely to be in the green post the Fed's decision on tapering its bond buying program (Quantitative Easing 3), says Richard Gibbs, global head, Macquarie Securities.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Gibbs says that he expects more clarity from the Fed and that a decision would be taken to strengthen the Fed's forward guidance.

Power stocks are on buyers' radar as NTPC and Tata Power gained 3 percent each whereas state-run capital goods major BHEL tanked 4.5 percent. PC Jeweller rose 5 percent after the government hiked import duty on gold jewellery from 10 percent to 15 percent. The hike in customs duty is aimed at containing the current account deficit.

1:40 pm Buzzer: Investors continued their selling in Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) as the stock fell more than 7 percent in afternoon trade Wednesday. CNBC-TV18 learnt from FMC's sources that Financial Technologies' -- the promoter of MCX -- representation on the MCX board is set to reduce to one from four. MCX may be run like a public institution where the board is controlled by the institutional shareholders and independent directors, sources add.

1:20 pm Market outlook: Export-oriented sectors IT and pharma, which are seen as major beneficiaries of rupee's steep fall, may continue to lead the Indian equity market, says Jitendra Sriram, managing direction and head of research, HSBC India. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Sriram says that the Q2 earnings are, however, likely to disappoint. He expects about 6-7 percent growth in Sensex Q2 earnings. On the imminent event of Fed tapering its bonad buying program, Sriram believes that the monetary stimulus will take place in a gradual manner and a vicious sell-off in markets is unlikely.

Investors seem to be on standstill on anxiety surrounding the Fed decision on bond buying programme. The Sensex is up 19.04 points or 0.10 percent at 19823.07, and the Nifty up 2.70 points or 0.05 percent at 5852.90.  About 991 shares have advanced, 1024 shares declined, and 149 shares are unchanged. Metals, IT, auto indices are in the red in late afternoon trade. BHEL, HDFC, Sesa Goa, Hero MotoCorp and M&M are top laggards in the Sensex. On the gaining side are  Tata Power, NPC, HUL, Dr Reddy's Labs and SBI.

Shares of jewellery companies rallied in early morning trade on Wednesday as the government increased import duty on gold jewellery from 10 to 15 percent. The finance ministry said setting import duty on gold jewellery higher than raw gold duty is aimed more at protecting the domestic jewellery industry than stemming bullion imports.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs remains "underweight" on Indian shares in its Asia Pacific portfolio and maintains its Nifty target at 5,700, saying the macro outlook remains challenged which coupled with tighter financial conditions may lead to lower valuations, reports Reuters. The investment bank says India's corporate health, and asset quality of banks will remain under pressure while positioning risk and election uncertainties are likely to linger as well.

12:59pm Gainers & Losers Bluechips like Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, ITC, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India and L&T gained 0.5-1.7 percent while Infosys, HDFC Bank, M&M, Sesa Goa and Hero Motocorp fell 0.5-1.5 percent. HDFC and BHEL are major losers in the Sensex, declining more than 2.5 percent.

12:45pm Buzzers MCX shares lost 7.6 percent as CNBC-TV18 learnt from FMC sources that Financial Technologies' representation on the MCX board is set to reduce to one from four. MCX will be run like a public institution with the board controlled by institutional shareholders. The FMC chairman told CNBC-TV18 that anchor investors' stake in all exchanges will be capped at 26 percent, adding the regulator is working on sending showcause notices to MCX directors.

DLF is one of the top gainers on the Nifty, up 3 percent. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 230. The brokerage house says the stock is trading at attractive valuations and could surprise positively once macro improves. Polaris surged 3 percent on a media report that the company is in talks with Japan's NEC Corp to sell its services business. The deal could possibly value the services division at USD 400-450 million, which is higher than what Tech Mahindra is reported to have valued the business at, the report says.

12:27pm It is another lacklustre session for the market as the Nifty is moving in a tight range ahead of the FOMC decision on tapering late night today. The Sensex is up 53.37 points at 19857.40, and the Nifty is up 12.25 points at 5862.45. While the taper terror is still haunting investors around the world, Dilip Bhat, Joint MD, Prabhudas Lilladher feels that Indian equities seem to be discounting the worst especially, after foreign investors have resumed buying.

In the near-term, the Nifty has the potential to rally another 150-200 points, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. However, the downside could be as steep as 400-450 points, so on a risk return basis, market participants should be a little more careful, he recommended. Dr Reddys Laboratories shares gained 2 percent today on top of a 3.7 percent rally in previous session. UBS raised its target price on the stock to Rs 2,750 from Rs 2,600 on account of approval for VIDAZA. The brokerage house also raised earnings per share estimates for FY14/15 by 4 percent/6 percent. Tata Power is the top gainer in the Sensex, rising 2.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the rupee gained 22 paise to 63.15 on dollar sales by some foreign banks, but caution prevails ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting later tonight. The currency appreciated nearly 600 paise in two weeks from its record low of 68.8 per dollar touched on August 28. Notwithstanding the likelihood of US Fed reversing the quantitative easing programme, India Ratings & Research expects the currency to appreciate to 59-61/USD by end-FY14.

''The fall in INR since May 2013 like other emerging market currencies was triggered by the expectation of a roll back by US Fed on its monthly USD85bn bond purchase programme. However, INR depreciated more than other emerging market currencies due to India's high current and fiscal account deficit as also the speculative attack on the currency in August 2013'', says Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head - Public Finance at India Ratings in its report. Globally, Aasian markets edged lower on anxiety surrounding the Fed decision on tapering. Nikkei though bucked the trend on the back of a weaker yen.

11:40 am Market outlook: While the taper terror is still haunting investors around the world, Dilip Bhat, Joint MD, Prabhudas Lilladher feels that Indian equities seem to be discounting the worst especially, after foreign investors have resumed buying. In the near-term, the Nifty has the potential to rally another 150-200 points, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. However, the downside could be as steep as 400-450 points, so on a risk return basis, market participants should be a little more careful, he recommended.

11:20 am Buzzer: Shares of jewellery companies rallied in early morning trade on Wednesday as the government increased import duty on gold jewellery from 10 to 15 percent. Investors were buying Titan Industries (up 2.6 percent), Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (up 6 percent), PC Jeweller (up 7 percent), Gitanjali Gems (up 4 percent) and Shree Ganesh Jewellery (up 4 percent) riding on the euphoria.

The finance ministry said setting import duty on gold jewellery higher than raw gold duty is aimed more at protecting the domestic jewellery industry than stemming bullion imports. The hike in import duty on jewellery had been a demand from the industry to ensure the viability of the domestic jewellery manufacturing, and avoid imports of cheaper jewellery from Thailand, Malaysia or elsewhere.

The market is rangebound as investors are cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome later tonight. The Sensex is up 40.35 points or 0.20 percent at 19844.38, and the Nifty up 6.45 points or 0.11 percent at 5856.65. About 954 shares have advanced, 689 shares declined, and 117 shares are unchanged. Dr Reddys Labs , Wipro , Cipla , HUL and Coal India are top gainers in the Sensex. HDFC , BHEL , M&M, GAIL and Sesa Goa are dragging. SKS Microfinance shares rallied 12.6 percent intraday Wednesday as the company announced that a leading rating agency has assigned A rating for its long-term and A1 for its short-term bank facilities for an aggregate sum of Rs 2,000 crore.

However, the company did not disclose the name of the rating agency citing "non-disclosure agreement". Meanwhile, Asian markets are mixed ahead of the conclusion of the fed meet tonight. Brent crude cracked further to hit a one month low falling below USD 108 as Syrian fears receded and crude output resume at a large oil field in Libya. Gold has slipped below USD 1300/oz on tapering fears. Back home, the rupee is in a narrow range today as sentiment is cautious and government bond prices are firm tracking the rupee.

10:55am Movers & Shakers Index heavyweights Reliance Industries and ITC gained 1.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. Dr Reddys Labs rose more than 2 percent on top of a 3.7 percent rally in previous session. UBS raised raised price target on the stock to Rs 2,750 from Rs 2,600 on account of approval for Vidaza. The brokerage house also raised FY14/15 earnings per share estimates by 4 percent/6 percent. However, housing finance company HDFC and private sector lender HDFC Bank lost 2.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

10:35am Stocks In News MCX India shares fell more than 7 percent as Forward Markets Commission's sources told CNBC-TV18 that Financial Technologies group's representation is set to reduce to one on MCX board from four now. MCX will be run like a public institution where board controlled by institutional shareholders, sources say.

MCX will submit proposal to FMC by September 30. SKS Microfinance shares gained 9 percent as the company said that a leading rating agency had assigned A rating for its long-term and A1 for its short-term bank facilities for an aggregate sum of Rs 2,000 crore. However, the company did not disclose the name of the rating agency citing "non-disclosure agreement".

10:20am The market is gyrating in a tight range ahead of conclusion of two-day Federal Reserve meeting ending today and guidance from new RBI governor Raghuram Rajan on September 20. The Sensex is up 14.30 points at 19818.33, and the Nifty is up 0.20 points at 5850.40. Advancing shares outnumbered declining ones by 672 to 455 on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Amit Trivedi, Co-Founder, Investworks.in is of the view that if Fed tapering is less than USD 10 billion then market is sure to rally and one could see Nifty 100-150 points up, to 6000-6100 levels. However, if there is bad news from Fed in terms of a roadmap on how the entire stimulus will be cut then market could see a sell-off.

"If there is positive news, funds will try and digest the news and then money will come into India. However, if there is negative news, fund flow from India will be very quick," he adds in an interview to CNBC-TV18. Hindustan Unilever and State Bank of India gained more than one percent.

9.48 am Market check: The market has gone flat again. The Sensex is down 2.41 points or 0.01 percent at 19801.62, and the Nifty down 1.40 points or 0.02% at 5848.80. About 598 shares have advanced, 430 shares declined, and 52 shares are unchanged. 9:30 am Movers and losers: Tata Motors, Wipro, Dr Reddy's Labs, Cipla and Bajaj Auto are top gainers in the Sensex. On the losing side are Sun Pharma and HDFC twins. Except for  banking and technology, all indices are in green.

As investors patiently wait for the Federal Reserve's decision on bond buying programme, the market opens with marginal gains. A CNBC poll shows the market watchers are expecting Bernanke to taper the monthly bond buying programme by nearly USD 15 billion. European markets trimmed losses. The Sensex is up 52.58 points or 0.27 percent at 19856.61, and the Nifty gains 22.55 points or 0.39 percent at 5872.75. About 212 shares have advanced, 85 shares declined, and 31 shares are unchanged.

The Indian rupee opened with a marginal gain at 63.25 per dollar versus 63.37 yesterday. Arvind Narayanan, DBS said, "Rupee will be rangebound today ahead of the FOMC minutes. The mood remains slightly bullish. We could see rupee move below 63/USD again. The range for the day is seen between 62.50-63.40/USD." The dollar holds near a four-week trough against a basket of major currencies. The euro trades at USD 1.3357, near a 2-1/2 week peak and the yen hovers near 99/USD.

The dollar holds near a four-week trough against a basket of major currencies. The euro trades at USD 1.3357, near a 2-1/2 week peak and the yen hovers near 99/USD. The government stepped up its war against the current account deficit and hiked import duty on gold jewellery from 10 percent to 15 percent. Domestic jewellers have welcomed the move saying that it will protect the industry. In another key development, the Cabinet Committee on Investment met last evening to discuss clearance for infrastructure projects worth Rs 1.6 lakh crore.

US markets closed higher on Tuesday with the Dow and S&P 500 gaining for the third-straight session ahead of the Fed's policy decision. Meanwhile, Asian markets were trading on a mixed note today morning.

Crude tumbled to multi-week lows as Syria fears eased and after output resumed at a large oilfield in western Libya. Brent traded shy of USD 108/barrel and has lost over 6 percent from its peak of USD 117 plus in late August. Nymex too has slipped to USD105/barrel levels. From precious metals space, gold prices have slipped below USD 1,300/oz on prospects of a modest reduction in the Fed's bond-buying stimulus. Gold has lost 21 percent YTD since the Fed first announced its intention to look at tapering.

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