Foreign
investors, seems to be quite bullish on domestic telecom
companies like MTNL and Bharti, despite the fact the government
is unlikely to heed the clamour to raise the FDI cap to
74 per cent. Telecom stocks came under heavy selling pressure
on reports that the new government may not raise foreign
holding limit in the telecom sector.
The
Left Front is keen on channelling foreign capital in selective
industries only, and telecom is unlikely to be one of
them. The 49 per cent limit will be a negative for private
sector players like Bharti (and Hutchison), who would
have otherwise relied on foreign capital, to an extent,
for their expansion and acquisition plans.
Moreover,
with the Congress following a policy of 'selective privatisation'
the likelihood of MTNL (and BSNL) divestment is unlikely
to go forward. Additionally, a softer stance on labour
reforms would mean that VRS proposals are likely to be
shelved.
But
leading foreign broking firms like J P Morgan are still
bullish on telecom stocks like MTNL and Bharti. The prevalent
mood among Morgan's analysts is that "this fall in
the stock price provides a great buying opportunity for
investors." But the brokering firm said that the
foreign limit remaining at 49 per cent would certainly
reduce the ability of Bharti to raise foreign capital.
However,
the company is fully funded for its expansion plans in
FY05. Additionally, the net debt to funded equity is below
0.8, which means Bharti can raise capital through the
debt route. Since there is confidence in wireless growth
in India and they believe that Bharti is among the best
positioned to capture the benefits of this explosion.
The
focus area of the new government is likely be on increasing
rural incomes, which will boost the growth for wireless
services over the long term, since the growth in metros
has fallen behind the non-metro circles, and rural growth
will be a strong positive over the longer term.
In
the case of MTNL, though privatisation will be on the
backburner, VRS may be implemented, as it is the MTNL
board which will decide on it and not the government.
Also,
MTNL has been partially able to stem the migration of
subscribers to private fixed operators.
Tariffs have now stabilised and are unlikely to fall further.
To add to stability in fixed-line business, the wireless
business is showing traction
for the first time. The company is adding around 1.6 million
capacity in three phases, which will give a leg up to
the wireless business.
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