Mumbai: India can emerge as a world leader in industry and commerce, accounting for 10 per cent of the global trade by 2022. It can become the world's largest pool of trained manpower and a source of global innovations, CII president K V Kamath said.

India should double its per capita income in 10 years, which means achieving a per capita growth of 7 per cent and GDP growth of 8-9 per cent every year. The country should target increasing the share of manufacturing sector to 25 per cent by 2020, he told the `India@75 - The Emerging Agenda,' meet in Hyderabad.

Kamath said India should focus especially on the bottom of the pyramid as a source of innovations for the world. For the medium term, there is a scope for a 10 per cent growth. He said that in spite of global slowdown and strong challenges in the domestic economy, there is enough momentum and fundamental macro-economic strength in the Indian economy to ensure a 8.3 per cent to 8.6 per cent GDP growth for 2008-09.

However, the challenges are low agricultural productivity & weak supply chain, there are growing off-budget items, rising commodity and consumer prices, increasing pressure on balance of payments - the current account deficit estimated at 1.5 per cent during 2007-08 with the Indian oil basket at average $80 a barrel.

He said that CII's 69th Business Outlook survey reveals increase in investments in H1 2008-09. ''Over 73 per cent respondents expect increase in production, 63 per cent exporter respondents expect increase in exports and 83 per cent expect raw materials cost to increase due to manufacturing inflation. The outlook for GDP growth is at 8 per cent plus in 2008-09. However, the downside risks are further oil peaks, global economic slowdown, high inflation and interest rate hardening and fiscal discipline under stress, he said.

''Our development agenda for the medium term should be about ensuring better access to health, education, skills training, availability of affordable housing, urban regeneration and rural dynamism, wider access to financial products, lower barriers to entrepreneurship and model cities to accommodate future urban migration,'' he said.

As for infrastructure, the country needs to build capacity at the state level to develop shelf of bankable projects. It should identify 10 large projects for fast track approval to create demand.

CII, he said, would launch 'Green Home Rating System', a first of its kind in India. It would setup Water Institute at Jaipur and a framework of `Green Procurement Policy'. CII would also develop technology vision for India and work on mission mode to push India up in the global technology index.

On global engagements, Kamath said that CII stands for early conclusion of Doha Round, with enhanced market access to developing and least developed countries.

He said that CII opposes NAMA text on account of sectoral zero for zero negotiations and inclusion of multilateral principles for re-manufactured goods. CII is for deepening engagement with Brazil, Russia, China and Africa to strengthen long-term business ties. It sees India-ASEAN FTA, an opportunity for India to attract investments.

He said that CII has identified several key imperatives and enablers for sustaining the growth momentum.  Some of these measures include: formulating a model land leasing Act and promotion of investments is high value agriculture; and promotion of private investments in tier II towns in the areas of healthcare, organised retailing, tourism and logistics services. 

The country also needs political consensus to support labour reforms, enable uniform application of rules and regulations at state level and support simplification and rationalisation of labour legislations

CII Southern Region chairman B V R Mohan Reddy said CII-SR has developed a 'visioning exercise' for the Southern states and released vision documents for Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu with an aim to achieve and equitable and inclusive growth.  

CII also embarked upon  a ten-point agenda this year, which lay emphasis on skills, employability and affirmative action, infrastructure development, enhancing competitiveness of MSMEs,  building linkages in agriculture, manufacturing and services, education, and corporate social responsibility.

Utpal Sen Gupta, chairman, CII - Andhra Pradesh State Council, said the CII  has proposed a common minimum economic agenda for political parties on  the State Vision for 2025. ''We will be training 5,000 youth under `grassroot level skill development initiative', upgrade 24 ITIs into centers of excellence, promote 100 entrepreneurs under PPP mode and study and protect geographical indication (GI) in traditional sectors of Andhra Pradesh," he said.

Venu Srinivasan, vice president, CII and managing director, Sundaram Clayton Ltd and Chandrajit Banerjee, director general, CII were also present at the press conference.