Australian mineral export forecast down by $30 billion

After the frenzied demand for mineral raw materials by emerging Asian economic giants China, India and South Korea, and powerhouse Japan, the unprecedented boom in minerals seems to have become a thing of the past, at least for now, as the global economic slowdown has put Australian mining in the pits and the Auustralian government has slashed its mineral export earnings in 2008-2009 by nearly $30 billion to $192 billion.

Suggesting deeper cuts in demand, Phillip Glyde, executive director of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARE) while releasing  the December issue of Australian commodities, which slashed its forecast for iron ore output by more than 15 per cent till next July but has made small reductions in metallurgical coal and copper production.

Australia's commodity export earnings are forecast to be $192 billion in 2008-09, down from ABARE's September forecast of $214 billion and is largely as a result of the recent global financial crisis.

''While world prices for many commodities have declined markedly over the past few months, a significant depreciation of the Australian dollar, if sustained, is expected to provide some support for commodity export earnings,'' Glyde said.

The value of Australia's minerals and energy exports is forecast to be around $159 billion in 2008-09, a downward revision from the $180 billion forecast in September. This updated forecast of minerals and energy export earnings still represents a rise of 37 per cent on the previous year.

For energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to increase by 77 per cent to $80.8 billion in 2008-09. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to be $78.3 billion, an increase of 11 per cent on the previous year.