The
RBI Governor, Y V Reddy announced the credit policy in Mumbai today. RBI has hiked
the CRR by 50 bps to 7.5 per cent from 5 per cent. However, the other key rates
including the repo and reverse repo rates have remained unchanged. (See: RBI raises
CRR by 50 basis points to 7.5 per cent, other rates steady) SBI
Chairman OP Bhatt said that an interest rates revision is unlikely. CRR hike is
an ''upfront attack on liquidity'', he added. He said that banks NIMs are seeing
pressure. "It
was anticipated. If there is so much liquidity in the system and if you look at
the last couple of weeks, the fact that there is so much liquidity - it''s sloshing
in the system. And so much liquidity continuing to come into the system, some
measures for continuing liquidity have become important. So in that sense, it
was expected that there will be some measure, and the measures that they have
chosen is to increase the CRR rate." KV
Kamath, CEO & MD of ICICI Bank has said that a CRR hike doesn''t necessarily
mean hike in interest rates, though he added that CRR hike would mean a re-think
on interest rates. Kamath
clarified that with the CRR hike, his bank would need to rethink and redraw their
plans regarding lowering the lending rates. However,
he does not suggest an upward move. "I would not say that it is on an upward
move because if we see stability in the deposits rates and or deposits rates decreasing,
you may ask me, ''Why? Because of the liquidity situation?'' Liquidity
continues to be good and the lending rates could hold. But banks would take knock
because of the CRR hike and that will have to be factored in to the whole equation
as we go along," Kamath said. He
agrees with the RBI that surplus liquidity needs immediate attention. He said,
"Indeed surplus liquidity needs immediate attention. That could create inflationary
pressures and you have the challenges of the global flows continuing unabated.
So whatever measures have been taken to keep this in check are in an international
context." He
agrees with the RBI that surplus liquidity needs immediate attention. He said,
"Indeed surplus liquidity needs immediate attention. That could create inflationary
pressures and you have the challenges of the global flows continuing unabated.
So whatever measures have been taken to keep this in check are in an international
context." Meanwhile,
Indranil Sengupta, chief economist, DSP ML also feels that bank interest rates
would remain same. "If you saw the data on the sectoral deployment of credit,
housing loans are down to 16 per cent YoY, from 45 per cent as of March ''06. So
I think the retail lending cuts that have taken place in that segment, they have
been currently packaged as festival cuts. But I think they are there to stay."
He predicts
that economy is also beginning to soft land. "We are probably going to see
growth somewhere in the region of 8.5-9 per cent rather than 9-9.5 per cent. So
I think that the rates cycle will turn and probably a few months down the line,
you will actually see rates moving off. "The
excesses that happened last year in deposit rates and the lending rates, especially
in retail lending rates, though it have more or less begun to get corrected, they
will stay corrected during the rest of the year. So they''ll probably be flat now
and then with the easing bias as we go ahead," Sengupta elaborated.
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