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What do rising global interest rates indicate? news
05 August 2006

Both the ECB and Bank of England hiked rates on Thursday by 25 bps each, while the finance ministry has asked Indian PSU banks to hold their lending rates down. What did global economists make of the ECB and Bank of England and what do they expect these central banks to do next? CNBC-TV18 shares with domain-b this report.

Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley agrees that they were a little surprised by this move. But he does believe ECB and BoJ have huge amounts of tightening to go ahead of them. "There's much more risk to their interest rates than there is in the rest of the world," he says.

According to him, central banks are sending a signal that the easy money that was available to bid up the price of risky assets like emerging markets equity and bonds and some of the more exotic credit instruments, than easy money, is coming out.

"I think if you see risk getting put back into these risky assets, it would mean that it could be a little tougher for investors in these non-traditional markets going forward," he said.

But Jan Lambregts, senior economist, Asian region, Rabobank was not surprised. The move, according to him was "pretty much obliging market expectations." In fact, Lambregts expects them to tighten two more times, in early October and early December.

"I think that is the point at which ECB is likely to take a long break, a long pause. One reason is because we estimated a neutral rate, which is the rate at which the economy is needed to stimulate it nor drag as opposed by interest rates when it is around 3.5 per cent. Second reason is that we feel there will be some head wins for growth next year in the euro zone," he explains.

As far as BoE is concerned, he feels that it is moving further into restrictive territory. Lambregts found it pretty surprising they moved already yesterday, as it was not even certain in the market that they would move next month.

"They surprised the market by moving yesterday and that shows that they are concerned about inflation, which is a worldwide issue," he said. Therefore, Lambregts comes to the conclusion that there is a prospect that they may do more even later on in the year, if inflation doesn't subside.

Claudio Piron from JP Morgan Chase too expects another two hikes from the ECB, but to about 4 per cent in the middle of next year. The driver for that, according to him, is that even though structural capacity and structural growth in Europe has declined, it is in a cyclical upswing.

"So when we look at our GDP forecasts, we are actually looking for Japan and Europe to actually outperform US growth at the end of the year," he says.

Roach finally sums it up in his own words, "If Central banks around the world, do seem to be leaning a little bit against inflationary winds, I think they are also making an effort to withdraw the excess liquidity from the world financial markets, which have given us a lot of asset bubbles in the last six-seven years."

He believes that's a healthier place for the global economy to be and ultimately, if they succeed in doing that without having another of those post bubble collapses, the world economy will be a better and more sustainable place.


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What do rising global interest rates indicate?