US cedes top spot to Brazil-China-India as investment destination: poll news
21 September 2010

The United States now lags emerging markets in Brazil, China and India as a preferred place for investment, a Bloomberg quarterly Global Poll reports. It had ranked first only three months ago in the last such quarterly poll.

In the 16-17 September poll of 1,408 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers, respondents made evident their negative perception of the US economy rating it fourth for potential returns over the next year, behind Brazil and China, tied for first, and India in the third place.

The world's largest economy, however, still ranked highest of all major developed countries.

The poll respondents also said the Federal Reserve was likely to take further steps to try to bolster the economy.

The slide in sentiment comes even as US GDP growth slowed to 1.6 per cent in the second quarter from 3.7 per cent in the first quarter.  Expectations for US GDP growth next year are down to a median forecast of 2.5 per cent in September, from 2.9 per cent in June, according to Bloomberg's monthly survey of economists.

The poll also shows that perceptions about the dollar have changed significantly since the June survey, when 63 per cent of the respondents believed the US currency would rise against the euro during the following three months. Sentiment is about evenly split with 34 per cent now expecting a stronger dollar in three months; 32 per cent expecting little change and 30 per cent a weaker dollar.

The Bloomberg Global Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Respondents are also confident that the US economy has put the worst days behind it. Seven out of 10 respondents say they believe there is little or no risk of a US double-dip recession. Six out of 10 investors were confident that the US would not endure a Japan- like ''Lost Decade'' of minimum or nil growth.

The respondents are wary of the record US budget deficits with a 53 per cent majority agreeing that there was a big or moderate risk that budget deficit would provoke a crisis of confidence within two years sparking ''a dramatic rise'' in long-term interest rates.

The White House budget office has forecast a record federal deficit of $1.47 trillion for 2010 and $1.42 trillion for the 2011 fiscal year, which begins 1 Oct.





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US cedes top spot to Brazil-China-India as investment destination: poll