Mumbai:
The Indian
economy is estimated to grow by 5.7 per cent during 2001-02
as against the earlier projection of 6 per cent, according
to a press release issued by the Centre for Monitoring
Indian Economy (CMIE).
The revision follows the slower-than-expected growth in
industry during the first half, sharp fall in exports
and concerns following the fall in the capital goods index.
CMIE had recently revised the industrial sector growth
to 3.5 per cent against its earlier projection of 4.5
per cent.
The industrial sector is expected to recover in the second
half of the year, after having recorded a growth of just
2.3 per cent in the first half. The consumer goods segment
is expected to perform well. The index for consumer durables
grew by 16 per cent in the second quarter of 2001-02 as
against the 6.5 to 7-per cent growth recorded in the preceding
two quarters. We expect the index to rise at an even faster
pace during the second half of the year.
The index for capital goods fell by 6 per cent in the
first quarter and then by 11 per cent in the second quarter.
CMIE had expected a decline in investment activity. But
the decline reflected in the IIP estimates is sharper
than CMIEs expectations. Similarly, as against official
projections of a 12-per cent rise in exports in 2001-02,
CMIE had predicted a zero growth. The trend, so far, is
negative and there are no chances of the year returning
to a positive growth in exports.
CMIEs
other sectoral forecasts remain broadly unchanged. The
forecast for the agricultural sector as a whole remains
unchanged at 6.5 per cent. Similarly, the forecast for
growth in the services sector remains unchanged at 6.6
per cent. Of this, trade, transport and communication
are projected to grow by 7 per cent, finance, real estate
and insurance at 6.5 per cent and other services by 6
per cent.
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