Economic impact of the Mumbai terror attacks news
01 December 2008

With Operation Cyclone finally over, and the Mumbai attackers having been dispatched to meet their maker by India's NSG Commandos, Mumbai is now introspecting and asking a multitude of questions. It is also trying to find a figure to the economic losses the city, and maybe even the country, will suffer as a consequence of this tragic event.

Reports also suggested that footfalls across malls in the city delivered a severe blow to the peak shopping season. Footfalls across popular shopping destinations, such as InOrbit mall and Nirmal Lifestyle, were reported to have dropped to below a thousand, a fraction of their former self. Sales were even lower, with dampended spirits of Mumbaikars keeping them away from shops, movie halls, and restaurants.

In the immediate term, new security measures see an impact on the retail, entertainment, and hospitality sectors, with the last one being the hardest hit. Most five star hotels in the city have implemented security measures, which allow only people with prior reservations into their premises. The move is gauranteed to impact their business.

For the medium to long term, government officials are trying to project a more optimistic view, saying that the impact would be largely limited to the short term. The chief economic advisor to the finance ministry, Arvind Virmani, was quoted as saying that what would be more important is the response by the system to improvements in the security situation. He said that the time had come for reforms in India to be expanded from the economic front, into the sphere of law and order.

Virmani said that confidence and sentiments depend less on a single event that happens over a period of a few days, and more on the government's response to it.

The Economic Times quoted Crisil's chief economist Subir Gokarn echoing the same view, wherein he inisisted that a policy response in terms of law and order and people's security was mandatory. He said policies should be above party politics, and should be independent of the party in power.

Though India's ex - finance minister and current home minister P Chidambaram (See: Security shuffle: A change of rooms for Chidambaram) chose to downplay the economic impact of the Mumbai terror attacks on India's economy, news television network NDTV reported a number of business executives from multinational companies having changed their travel plans to Indian destinations, and those in the country, having flown out.

Mumbai is one of the world's top 10 centres of commerce and contributes to about 5 per cent of India's GDP and accounts for 25 per cent of the industrial output, 40 per cent of maritime trade, and 70 per cent of capital transactions to the economy. Mumbai's per-capita income is Rs48,954 ($990) which is almost three times the national average. (See: Mumbai will emerge stronger)

Other reports suggested that as the smoke clears, the loss numbers from the stock markets could be in the range of Rs50,000 crore. Losses expected at the forex markets is said to be around $20 billion, factoring in losses on account of opportunity costs at the stock, commodities and foreign exchange markets.

The damages from the terror attacks themselves are yet to be calculated. Damages to the Taj and Oberoi hotel properties are still being assessed, even as cancellations cause them to lose large chunks of their revenues.Insurance cover against terrorism for most properties across the city too is likely to cost a lot more, driving up recurring costs.

Private equity investments are likely to whether the terror storm, according to PE industry sources. Venture Intelligence CEO Arun Natarajan was quoted as saying that there would not be a major impact to the flows of private equity funds, since they prefer to stay invested for the longer term.


 search domain-b
  go
 
Economic impact of the Mumbai terror attacks