With the withdrawal of support by the Left Front, the Congress may actually be feeling relieved to get a monkey off it's back, being locked in alliance with a partner that kept stonewalling major economic reforms By Rajiv Singh

A lot of things happened yesterday, all through the day – the massive blasts in Kabul, a series of low intensity ones at Karachi almost immediately thereafter, which made you wonder a bit as they were a bit uncharacteristic, then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh leaving for Hokkaido, Japan. The big bang news soon followed, with the PM announcing from his aircraft that he would be moving to the IAEA, after all.

By late evening, the Left Front's television warriors were looking decidedly rattled – and finding it difficult to go through their usual 'one threat a day' routine – there comes a time when bluffs get called and you need to be ready  -  the Left clearly wasn't. A matter of habit you may say, since you have been pulling the same stunt for years on end and it has always worked -  so why not this time round?

Well this time around there was a difference - somebody had had enough. The frowns on the faces of the Left's representatives told their own story.

It's an incredibly expressionless face that the PM is either blessed with, or has learnt to put on display. Now and then it breaks into a puckish smile and it's uncanny how it begins to resemble the face of a six-year old. That smile was flashing on the flight to the G8 summit at Hokkaido.

With hindsight it may be said that the Congress's outmaneuvering of the Left Front was as neat an operation as anyone could pull. If you keep in mind Rahul Gandhi's overtures to Amar Singh, made a few months back through a letter of condolence at a bereavement in the Samajwadi Party top honcho's family, it would appear that the Congress had already worked out its game plan early enough. Amar Singh certainly has been moved by the young Gandhi's letter and had expressed his surprise.

All the subsequent meetings between the UPA and the Left Front, held in the environs of South Block, with the red sandstone facade of the building providing due gravitas to all the hustle and bustle, would now appear to be a stretching of time and manoeuvring space by the Congress. This would appear to continue even now with the Left Front wondering why a meeting should be scheduled for 10 July when announcements were being made earlier. Well the announcements were being made to inform the leaders of G8 that the prime minister would attend the summit and not for the benefit of the Left Front. The Left is no longer the centre of the universe. The days of power without responsibility are over, finally.

All this was yesterday, of course. If it hadn't been for the incessant whining of the Left and their inveterate ''we will huff and puff and blow your house down'' routine we may have spared a thought or two for those that died in Kabul and their families. We may have wondered what this long anticipated attack - coming at this juncture - could possibly portend for India and the immediate neighbourhood.

All we managed to do was to find ourselves engrossed with the inanities of the Left spokesmen. Rising prices coupled with an inflation scare is enough to depress anybody  - what one does not require at this point of time is an election that is forced down your throat. These, broadly, were the sentiments as one decided to call it a day.

This morning, while watching CNBC with the stock markets performing another tumble, one got to listen to long time political commentators, and senior journalists M J Akbar and Rajdeep Sardesai on the developing political situation.

Sardesai felt it was a paradox that even as the government was being weakened by a Left pullout, the PM's own personal standing was being strengthened. He certainly had a point and the PM's puckish smile the previous evening would certainly add to the suspicion that this indeed was so. Constantly pilloried by India's permanent PM-in-waiting, L K Advani, as the country's weakest PM ever, and finding any number of his government's policy initiatives hobbled every step of the way by the Left, this was certainly a good moment for the PM.

For once, the UPA's staunch allies, the Left, were left looking like fools and the smile was on the PM's face.

Taking matters so deliberately to the brink with a critical ally, over an issue that the PM asserts is not only in the national interest but also critical to the country's future growth plans, has done an immense amount of good to his image. All the more because he is not the kind of a person who will now climb a podium to crow about the fact that he has just shown up somebody.

From Day 1 the Left appeared to have just one agenda and that was to hobble the government every step of the way. At one point of time its leaders even informed the nation that indeed they were the opposition! If you are blessed with such allies, why would you need an opposition?

Sardesai's assertion about the PM gaining in stature, even as the government was being weakened, drew a retort from M J Akbar that the Congress and the UPA really needed to think things through right to the end. This, he felt, wasn't happening. It was his contention that the situation was fraught with danger more for the Congress than any other party.

Akbar pointed out that the Congress was virtually non-existent in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. In Bihar it was effectively under the tutelage of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Now aligning with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh it would ensure that it would get no more than 10 seats allocated to it in this heartland of cow belt politics. So, with Lalu dominating  Bihar and Mulayam the relationship in UP, India's Grand old Party was placing itself in a position where it would effectively wipe itself out, right across the Gangetic plain.

Such a scenario, said Akbar, would leave just one national party as a viable entity in the whole region, the BJP. All this, he said, was an eventuality that the Congress and the UPA had obviously factored into their calculations.

On the face of it, it would be difficult to fault Akbar's assessment. There are a few queries at my end though.

Akbar's analysis rests on two assumptions – first, that Mulayam Singh rules the roost sufficiently in UP to be able to dictate terms to the Congress comprehensively, much as Lalu had done so far in Bihar. The second assumption is that Lalu would continue to dominate his relationship with the Congress much along the same lines as he has done so far - that is, in perpetuity.

Both assumptions may not be as watertight as they appear to be, however.

In the face of UP chief minister Mayawati's immensely successful 'sarvajan' politics, the only thing that Mulayam Singh and the Congress currently rule over in UP are their own tattered reputations. Though, Mulayam's Samajwadi Party certainly holds the upper hand within the state, as compared to the Congress, the question that needs to be asked is whether the party is dominant enough for Mulayam to hand out scraps to the Congress, as Lalu once did.

Mayawati has not only carved out her own political space within the state, she is also a larger player at the national level than Mulayam Singh ever was, or can hope to be. Mulayam doesn't dominate UP, somebody else does – as an able politician he will recognise this fact and nurture his newfound relationship with the Congress accordingly. May be all that he will be able to manage, in his own best interests, is an equitable distribution of seats which recognises his fiefdom, and also allows the Congress an opportunity to try and stage an effective comeback.

As for Bihar, the equations are much the same as in UP, with a slight change. In Mulayam's place you have Lalu and in Mayawati's stead you have Nitish Kumar. Lalu Yadav does not dominate Bihar any more - that is a conclusion that Laluji himself would have drawn with the last state elections. With the subsequent  transformation that Nitish Kumar has brought about in the state, Laluji will require a little more of his 'management' skills to make a dent in the surge of goodwill that Nitish Kumar has earned for himself.

This time around Lalu is not going to be doing any favours to the Congress and hope to dole out the measly few seats he usually did.

The good old days of the regional satraps holding sway over the Congress are gone – there is a new political reality that both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav have to take cognisance of. Nitish Kumar is a tried and tested ally of the NDA who, so far, has put in a commendable stint as chief minister. Mayawati is a potent force not just on her own turf in UP but also across the country. Taking on both these entities is no mean task for any political party.

In a changed political equation a dominant regional satrap who can dictate terms to the Congress does not currently exist in the cow belt. So, if forced to do so, the Congress will head for pre-poll negotiations with a springier step than in the past - in spite of inflation and rising prices.

There are other reasons for the Congress to be hopeful of a positive outcome in the elections, but then all that is a different story, and for another day. As of now, it would be feeling mighty relived to get a monkey off its back.