Despite mixed sentiments, Indian employers reveal strongest hiring expectation for Q308 news
10 June 2008

Mumbai: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Q3 2008, released today, revealed that job market in India is expected to remain positive yet cautious in the third quarter of 2008.

Of the 32 countries and territories surveyed globally this quarter, employer hiring intentions continue to be robust in India with an overall 'net employment outlook of +45 per cent. The global slowdown has impacted the traditionally top countries in the quarterly survey like Singapore and Peru which follow India closely at second and third spot with + 42 per cent and + 40 per cent respectively.   

The survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter.  It is based on interviews with more than 55,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator. 

Quarter three surveys represents an increase of 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and a 7 percentage points increase year-over-year. Employers in the Services sector are notably optimistic about adding employees in the next three months.

Of the 5,636 employers surveyed, +45 per cent expect an increase in hiring activity in 3Q 2008. The net employment outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location over the next quarter. Employers in all eight countries and territories surveyed across the Asia Pacific region anticipate positive hiring activity for the third quarter. 

''While employers in India continue to show optimism in their hiring intent, the impact of US slowdown has started showing its impact on mid size companies especially in the IT and ITeS domain," said Dr Naresh Malhan, managing director Manpower India, "Given the high dependence of some of these sectors on the US economy, companies are increasingly taking a cautious route when it comes to rolling out offers with majority of recruitment now being largely based on work requirement of the firms. This impact will however be lesser in case of emerging economies in the East when compared to developed nations. We believe the growth story of developing nations like India to remain firm as companies continue to invest in technology to drive their growth, fight global competition, cut cost and improve efficiencies and is reflective in their mood to hire despite the slump.''

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey conducted for the thirteenth consecutive quarter in India shows the services sector as the most optimistic with an outlook of (+59 per cent).  Public administration and education employers indicate the weakest hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +25 per cent. Hiring intentions in the finance insurance and real estate industry are considerably stronger quarter-over-quarter with an increase of 12 percentage points in the net employment outlook.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey conducted in India includes employers across seven industry sectors: finance / insurance and real estate; manufacturing; mining and construction; public administration and education; services; transportation and utilities; wholesale and retail trade.

Sector Trends
Quarter-over-Quarter
: The most optimistic outlook is observed among the employers in the services sector [+59 per cent], this is an increase of 14 percentage points quarter-over-quarter

  • Employers' intentions to hire in the public administration and education sector [+25 per cent] are moderately weaker by 7 percentage points since the previous quarter of 2008
  • Further in this quarter employers in the finance, insurance and real estate [+56 per cent] sector anticipate a +12 per cent hiring environment
  • Employers in the manufacturing sector and wholesale and retail trade [both +30 per cen] sectors have reported moderate dips of 6 percentage points and 5 percentage points respectively
  • Meanwhile, employers in the transportation and utilities and the mining and construction sectors both reported improved outlook with increases of 9 percentage points and 5 percentage points, respectively since the second quarter of 2008.

Year-over-Year: The comparisons reveal a year-over-year increase of 7 percentage points in the overall Net Employment Outlook. There have been some significant changes in the hiring intentions amongst employers in India compared with the same period on 2007. Year-over-year comparisons reveal increases in Outlooks by employers in four of seven industry sectors, with largest increases [up 20 percentage points] reported in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industry sector and Services sector [up 17 percentage points].   

Employers in the public administration and education sector forecast a slight dip of 5 percentage points [+25 per cent], while employers in the mining and construction sector report an improvement of 11 percentage points. Meanwhile, employers in the manufacturing   and the wholesale and retail trade sectors both reported weaker Outlooks with slight decreases of 7 percentage points each. Employers in transportation and utilities also reported an increase of 4 percentage points compared to last year.

Regional Trends
Employers in all the four regions in India anticipate optimistic hiring intentions across industry sectors.

  • Employers in north are the most optimistic with a net employment outlook of +50%, which is an improvement of 12 percentage points over the previous quarter
  • Hiring intentions are weakest in the east, where the net employment outlook is +30% although there is an increase of 2 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter
  • Employers in the south expect robust hiring activity in this quarter, with an improvement of 4 percentage points over the previous quarter
  • Meanwhile, employers in the west report a net employment outlook of +44%, an improvement of 5 percentage points as compared to the previous quarter. 
    Year-over-year comparisons reveal that three regions report an increase in Outlook, while one reports a decrease.

Global Results
The Survey released today revealed that third quarter hiring is expected to be positive in 31 of the 32 countries and territories surveyed, with the exception of Spanish employers, who are reporting the only negative national Net Employment Outlook. Employers in Mexico are reporting their most optimistic hiring intentions since the survey was established there. However, the majority of employers worldwide are less optimistic about adding employees in the quarter ahead and also when compared to one year ago. Employers in Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa and Spain are reporting the least optimistic hiring expectations since the survey began in these countries. For the first time, India and Switzerland are reporting seasonally adjusted data.

In Asia Pacific region, employers are the most optimistic with India reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +45% followed by those in Singapore [+42%] while employers in China and New Zealand reported the weakest hiring forecast in the region. Moreover, China reported the weakest hiring outlook in the region for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Top 10 highlights of the survey

  • Of 32 countries surveyed, India ranks No.1 with overall net employment outlook of +45%
  • Singapore and Peru follow India closely at second and third spot with + 42 % and + 40 % respectively 
  • Q3 survey represents an increase of 6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and a 7 percentage points increase year-over-year
  • In India Services sector is the most optimistic with an outlook of +59%
  • Public Administration & Education employers indicate the weakest hiring intentions with a Net Employment Outlook of +25%
  • Largest increases [up 20 percentage points] is reported in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate industry sector and Services sector [up 17 percentage points]   
  • Employers in North are the most optimistic with a Net Employment Outlook of +50%, which is an improvement of 12 percentage points over the previous quarter
  • Hiring intentions are weakest in the East, where the Net Employment Outlook is +30% although there is an increase of 2 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter
  • The Global Survey revealed that third quarter hiring is expected to be positive in 31 of the 32 countries and territories surveyed, with exception of Spain
  • China reported the weakest hiring outlook in the region for the fourth consecutive quarter.

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Despite mixed sentiments, Indian employers reveal strongest hiring expectation for Q308