Negating reports of a possible slowdown, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) said that India's economy should continue to grow between 8.5 to 9 percent in the medium term, in the latest issue of its flagship publication,  Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2008.

The survey also said that a higher growth rate was possible through development of physical infrastructure and human capital.

However, it expressed concerns on price pressures and inflation due to high global oil and food prices. While it predicted a decline in oil prices from the current record levels, it expected food prices to remain high in 2008.

It further pointed out that the major currencies in the Asian region, including the rupee, would continue to appreciate against the dollar, "driven by the unwinding of large US imbalances with the rest of the world and the turmoil in global financial markets".

The survey was redleased by UN undersecretary general and executive secretary of UNESCAP, Dr. Noeleen Heyzer, in New Delhi today.

Speaking at a roundtable, "Taking India to the level" yesterday, she said that considerable progress had been achieved by India on many fronts, but much more needed to be done if India was to achieve the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which range from halving extreme poverty to halting the spread of HIV / AIDS and providing universal primary education, all by the target date of 2015.

These MDGs form a blueprint agreed to by all the world's governments.

She identified what she termed "imbalances" that threatened to derail this objective of achieving the MDGs. They were:
1. Economic imbalances: widening gap in per capita income between richer and poorer states.
2. Social imbalances: inequalities along race, religion, ethnicity and class.
3. Economic imbalances: caused by economic objectives pressurizing natural resources.
4. Empathy imbalances: insensitive bureaucracies failing to respond to human needs.

In order to address the above, she suggested a three-pronged strategy:
1. Focused action using the MDGs as a guiding framework.
2. Actions to remove imbalances to inclusive growth.
3. Co-operative action by governments and private enterprises to achieve the above.

She spoke about the pioneering role that the private sector can play in this regard, and said India's business community can tackle many of the country's economic and social imbalances by developing strategies to address them as part of their core business competencies. Quoting the proposition that "the true business of business lies outside the business", Dr. Heyzer said that "CSR (corporate social responsibility) is not only the right thing to do; it is also good business practice and a smart thing to do".

The Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2008 released by Dr. Heyzer addresses several questions relevant to the developing environment of Asia, such as:

• How is the neglect of agriculture condemning 600 million people to poverty?
  
• What is the impact of the US subprime crisis on Asia and the Pacific?
  
• Which Asian economies will be hit hardest by the subprime crisis? 
  
• What defensive actions can they take? 
  
• Why has global financial power shifted to Asia? 
  
• How are biofuels affecting record food prices in Asia?

This year's Survey, entitled "Sustaining Growth and Sharing Prosperity," says 218 million - a third of the region's poor, largely living in rural areas - could be lifted out of poverty by raising agricultural productivity if governments address decades of policy neglect and failure in the agricultural sector. The Survey also calls for a comprehensive liberalization of global trade in agriculture, as this would take a further 48 million people out of poverty in the region.

This year's issue marks the 60th anniversary of the Survey, first published in Shanghai in May 1948, which examines the most critical issues, challenges and risks in Asia and the Pacific in the months ahead, and explores critical long-term development issues relevant to all developing countries in the region.

The survey also predicted a better growth rate by further developments in material and human resources. "India could achieve and sustain a 10 per cent growth rate by further improving the country's business environment, by developing its physical infrastructure and human capital", it said. It also said that in the worst case scenario of a US recession, India would be adversely affected but the impact would be lessened by a burgeoning domestic demand.