"U.S. economic growth is expected to slow to a crawl in the first half of 2008," said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, president and chief economist at Ford Motor Company. "While a slight majority of our panel of forecasters expects the economy to avoid a recession in 2008, growth is expected to average just ¾ per cent before accelerating in the second half in response to fiscal and monetary stimulus.

A panel of economists from the National Association for Business Economics expects little economic growth in the first half of 2008, but anticipates a significant pick up in the second half.

The February 2008 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 49 professional forecasters.  The survey, covering the outlook for 2008 and 2009, was taken between 25 January 13 February 2008. 

Its 2009 outlook calls for real GDP to grow 2.9 per cent over the course of the year.

The panel significantly trimmed its estimates for consumer spending and housing, as well as cutting the outlook for inventory accumulation, while raising its forecasts for net exports and government spending. 

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) index of housing prices is expected to drop 4 per cent in 2008, the first drop in its history, before edging up a scant 0.1 per cent in 2009.

The NABE economists look for the trade deficit to decline further in 2008.
Consistent with its lower forecast for 2008 growth, the panel has pushed up its estimate for unemployment and the federal budget deficit.