According to data released by the Central Statistical Organisation the growth in GDP during 2007-08 is estimated at 8.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2006-07 and agricultural growth down to 2.6 per cent in 2007-08 from 3.8 per cent in the previous year.

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), ministry of statistics and programme implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, for the financial year 2007-08.

These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far.

The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

Advance estimates of national income, 2007-08 [Estimates at Constant (1999-2000) Prices]

Gross Domestic Product
The gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in year 2007-08 is likely to attain a level of Rs31,14,452 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2006-07 of Rs28,64,310 crore, released on 31st January 2008. The growth in GDP during 2007-08 is estimated at 8.7 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2006-07.

The growth rate of 8.7 per cent in GDP during 2007-08 has mainly been due to the growth rates of over 5 per cent in the sectors of 'manufacturing', 'electricity, gas and water supply', 'construction', 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community, social and personal services'.

Agriculture
The 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector is likely to show a growth rate of 2.6 per cent in its GDP during 2007-08, as against the previous year's growth rate of 3.8 per cent.

Industry
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 4.9 per cent, 9.8 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2007-08, as compared to the growth rates of 4.2 per cent, 11.8 per cent and 7.3 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2006-07.

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and steel have registered growth rates of 7.4 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively during April-November 2007-08, as against the corresponding growth rates of 10.8 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively in these items during April-November, 2006-07.

Services
The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2007-08 is placed at 14.2 per cent, mainly on account of a growth during April-November, 2007-08 of 8.0 per cent in Railway revenue earning freight traffic (against 10.1 per cent in April-November, 2006-07), 13.1 per cent in cargo handled at major ports (against 8.0 per cent in April-November, 2006-07), 4.8 per cent in the production of commercial vehicles (against 34.1 per cent in April-November, 2006-07), 21.9 per cent in passengers handled in civil aviation (against 27.9 per cent in April-November, 2006-07), 9.5 per cent in air cargo handled (against 6.9 per cent in April-November, 2006-07), and 43.6 per cent in stock of telephone connections (against 51.5 per cent in April-November, 2006-07).

The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 11.7 per cent during 2007-08, on account of 26.7 per cent growth in aggregate deposits (against 21.4 per cent in April-November, 2006-07) and 24.2 per cent growth in bank credit (against 28.8 per cent in April-November, 2006-07) during November 2006 to November 2007. The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2007-08 is estimated to be 7.0 per cent.

National Income
The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1999-2000 prices is likely to be Rs27,60,325 crore during 2007-08, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs25,30,495 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 9.1 per cent during 2007-08 in comparison to the growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2006-07.

Per Capita Income
The per capita income in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) during 2007-08 is likely to attain a level of Rs.24,256 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2006-07 of Rs22,553. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 7.5 per cent during 2007-08, as against the previous year's estimate of 8.1 per cent.

Estimates at current prices

Gross Domestic Product
GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2007-08 is likely to attain a level of Rs42,83,040 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.0 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2006-07 of Rs37,90,063 crore.

National Income
The NNP at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs37,70,302 crore during 2007-08, as compared to Rs 33,25,817 crore during 2006-07, showing a rise of 13.4 per cent.

Per Capita Income
The per capita income at current prices during 2007-08 is estimated to be Rs33,131 as compared to Rs29,642 during 2006-07, showing a rise of 11.8 per cent.

II Estimates of expenditures on GDP, 2007-08

Alongwith the Advance Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing for the first time, the Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (1999-2000) prices.

These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government.

As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private final consumption expenditure
Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs26,04,380 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs23,12,105 crore in 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs19,51,126 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs18,26,490 crore in 2006-07.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2007-08 are estimated at 55.5 per cent and 57.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.8 per cent and 58.6 per cent, respectively in 2006-07.

Government final consumption expenditure
Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs4,73,862 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs 4,27,007 crore in 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs3,23,187 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs3,06,420 crore in 2006-07. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2007-08 are estimated at 10.1 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.3 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively in 2006-07.

Gross fixed capital formation
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs16,25,914 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs13,46,501 crore in 2006-07. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs11,04,522 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs9,54,350 crore in 2006-07.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2007-08 are estimated at 34.6 per cent and 32.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 32.5 per cent and 30.6 per cent, respectively in 2006-07. Thus, there is an increase of 2.1 percentage points in the estimated GFCF at current prices during 2007-08. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2007-08 are estimated at 2.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively.

Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income, alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2004-05, 2006-07 and 2007-08, at constant (1999-2000) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

QE: Quick Estimate; AE: Advance Estimate

(At 1999-2000 prices)

Rs. Crore

STATEMENT 3: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2007-08

(At current prices)

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

QE: Quick Estimate; RE: Revised Estimate

STATEMENT 4: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

(At current prices)

Rs. Crore