Global financial crisis may affect India's exports, capital flows: PM news
19 December 2007

Mumbai: India cannot remain immune to the global financial market crisis flowing from the US sub-prime mortgage loans and rising commodity prices and these could affect the country's exports as well as capital flows, prime minister Manmohan Singh has cautioned policy makers.

India's economic growth has averaged around nine per cent per annum over the past three years, made possible by "historically high savings and investment rates," the prime minister said.

prime minister, Manmohan Singh"Our savings rate after stagnating for almost two decades has touched 34 per cent of GDP and the investment rate has crossed 35 per cent. These high rates ... are likely to go up in future because of our young population profile."

Speaking at the meeting of the National Development Council set to approve the 11th plan document, the prime minister also sounded a note of caution.

"There are some clouds on global financial markets following the sub-prime lending crisis. There are worries that the growth of the US and other leading economies may slow down and some may even go into a recession," he said, adding, "This may impact both our exports as well as capital flows."

"Our economy is now increasingly integrated into the global economy with the external sector accounting for almost 40 per cent of GDP and, hence, we can not fully immune to international developments," the prime minister said.

He said the country needs to create buffer stocks of pulses and edible oils to improve its food security.

"We probably need to enhance our buffer stocks of foodgrains and also consider buffer stocks for pulses and edible oils," he said.

The prime minister's remarks follow a sharp plunge of about 950 points in the country's stock market benchmark Sensex over the past few days.

Although the market was seen recovering the Sensex was still below its 20,000-point mark scaled last week.

India's economic growth also dipped to 8.9 per cent in the third quarter of the year, falling below 9 per cent for the first time in three quarters, as industrial output slowed amidst a tightening of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India.

Policy-makers are, however, confident of maintaining the growth momentum despite a surge in the value of the rupee against the dollar this year, which is hurting exporters.

The RBI, in a bid to cool prices and stop the economy from overheating, raised interest rates five times between mid-2006 and March this year, but has since held them steady.

The government is also discussing ways to minimise the impact of a 12 per cent rise in rupee's value on exporters, who have seen their margins squeezed.


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Global financial crisis may affect India's exports, capital flows: PM