Economy on track for 9 per cent growth: Montek Singh Ahluwalianews
04 December 2007

Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission has said that the fuel price hike pass-through will not stoke inflation. The impact of rising crude oil prices should be passed on. He isn''''t worried about any imminent slowdown and said the economy is on track for around 9 per cent growth.

Data released last week showed GDP growth for the second quarter slipping to 8.9 per cent. But the government has brushed aside any suggestion that this indicates a slowdown in the economy.

According to Ahluwalia, "The recent data shows that GDP growth has declined to 8.9 per cent. I think these short-term variations do not affect the current year. We had based it on 8.5 per cent. The average for the first six months is above that. So, I do not really see any case of worry."

CNBC-TV18 reporter Abhijit Neogi says that the Ahluwalia  only echoed what the finance minister had said earlier. He still believes that the investment demand is pretty buoyant in the economy; he believes that the crossed fixed capital formation is also on the upstream, in fact 30 per cent to be precise. But if one counts these factors, he does seem to suggest that the 8.9 per cent is a blip on the radar and on a two-year average, he will figure out that 9 per cent is pretty much on track and that is what he seems to suggest and this is what the deputy chairman said.

In Ahluwalia words, "The recent data shows that the GDP growth has declined from 9.3 per cent to 8.9 per cent, so the average is still above our forecast for the current year. I think these short-term variations, QoQ certainly doesn''''t affect the medium-term growth prospect and my guess is they will not affect the current year growth. We had based our growth rate on 8.5per cent for the current year and at the moment, the average of the first six months is above that, so I really don''''t see any reason to worry."

Another key message that came out of this conference today was the minister od state for commerce Ashwini Kumar''''s statement that he is really opposed to any sort of cartelisation as far as cement prices are concerned. That is little surprising considering that industrial outputs are sure to decline. So though prices haven''''t skyrocketed, atleast the government is keeping a watch on the cement producers. Any attempted cartelisation and the government will not hesitate to take measures.

Ashwini Kumar said, "I believe that there should be no cartelisation. Government will take all necessary steps to prevent cartelisation in order to ensure that there is no artificial jacking up of cement prices. We have already told the industry that don''''t think that the government is helpless, but make your profits if the demand of cement so warrants, but there can be no unconscionable profit through cartelisation."

All in all the mood is upbeat and consensus is that 9per cent growth is definitely on track. Yes there are issues, there are concerns, crude shock is one of them; high crude and commodity prices being another one of them, tighter monetary policy on the domestic front is also a key concern.

But the FM and the deputy chairman seem to suggest that these factors are taken and are accounted for in the planning process, but 9 per cent growth is still very much on.

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Economy on track for 9 per cent growth: Montek Singh Ahluwalia