It
is too early to say whether businesses or consumers will slash spending as a result
of the higher cost of credit, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said earlier
in the week on Monday 15 October. The fog of the turmoil in the financial markets
has not lifted, he said. Bernanke said it
seems clear that the housing market downturn isn''t over. The housing sector was
weakening even before the credit crunch began in early August, and conditions
in the mortgage sector remain out of whack even now. This, he said, might pull
down growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 and maybe into 2008. Expectations
that the economy grew at 3 per cent in the July-September quarter has emboldened
some economists to declare that the market turmoil may turn out to be only a speed
bump for the economy. Others seem convinced that a serious downturn lies ahead.
Things will become clearer only when the Commerce Department releases its initial
estimate of third quarter growth on 31 October. The
Fed chief said the economy did appear to have gained some momentum in the third
quarter, but did not reveal his hand on the key issue of the longer-term outlook,
except to say: "Thus far... direct evidence of spillovers onto the broader
economy has been limited." He
said that the Fed would be watching consumer and business spending carefully to
see whether the weakness in home prices affects consumer spending and whether
businesses have become more cautious in hiring. "The labour market has shown
some signs of cooling, but it is quite tentative so far, and real income is still
growing at a solid pace," Bernanke said. Saying
that the inflation outlook was benign despite higher prices of crude oil and other
commodities in recent weeks and the decline in the foreign exchange value of the
dollar, Bernanke said that the slower growth in coming quarters would help dampen
inflation pressures. He said history suggests that price gains from a weaker dollar
are small. Bernanke
said the Fed judged that the risks to inflation from the surprise half a percentage
point rate cut last month were "acceptable". It was prepared to reverse
the policy easing if inflation pressures proved somewhat stronger than expected.
He said risk management played a role in the decision on the half-point rate cut. "By
doing more sooner, we might be able to forestall some part of the adverse effects
of the disruptions in financial markets," he said, pointing out that the
rate cuts, combined with the technical steps the Fed has taken to restore liquidity,
has reduced some of the pressure on financial markets. "The
improved functioning of financial markets is a positive development, in that it
increases the likelihood of achieving moderate growth with price stability,"
Bernanke said. But the financial markets are not out of the woods, he stressed.
"Considerable strains remain," Bernanke said, pointing out that lessons
learent from the financial market turmoil will lead to a healthier financial system
over the longer term. He said Washington regulators would comprehensively review
events to better understand the episode. The
Fed counters criticism saying it did too little too late, by pointing out that
it is very difficult for the central bank to identify asset bubbles early enough
to keep them from developing. They say that attacking perceived asset bubbles
would have untoward economic consequences. Asked
about the weak dollar, Bernanke replied that the Fed''s mandate was to preserve
the domestic purchasing power of the dollar. But, he added, no central banker
can be indifferent to the exchange value of its currency, and the Fed would pay
attention to the issue.
|