Mumbai:
There are some signs of cyclical overheating in the
economy although the recent rise in the rupee has dampened
inflationary pressures to some extent, C. Rangarajan,
head of the prime minister''s economic advisory panel and
former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said.
Rangarajan
said the rise in the rupee it hit a nine-year high
against the dollar last week had helped dampen
inflation, but the big capital inflows that had powered
its rise had complicated monetary policy and currency
management.
India
also needed to be very careful about trying to moderate
the large capital inflows into the economy, although some
types could be discouraged, he told reporters at a financial
conference.
"Capital
flows far exceed our current account deficit. We have
to be very careful about how to moderate capital flows.
We should not send out wrong signals, but at the same
time some kinds of capital inflows could be discouraged,"
he said.
"Cyclical overheating occurs when the existing capacities
of an economy are being fully utilised and demand pressures
are still there. Yes there is, to some extent, cyclical
overheating," he said
India,
Asia''s third-largest economy, has grown at an average
of 8.6 per cent over the past four years. That has put
pressure on the country''s inadequate infrastructure, and
added to inflationary pressures in the economy.
The
Reserve Bank of India raised rates five times since last
June
and increased banks'' reserve requirements three times
since December to rein in inflation and credit growth.
The
wholesale price-based inflation hit 6.7 per cent in late
January, its highest in more than 2 years, and has since
moderated to 5.06 per cent in mid-May.
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