Mumbai: Former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan still believes there is a one-third chance that the US economy would slip into recession this year.

In February this year Greenspan shook markets saying it was possible the US economy might fall into recession by the end of the year. In March he followed up by saying that he saw a one-third chance of recession.

"My arithmetic says if there''s a one-third probability of a recession, then there''s a two-thirds probability there won''t be a recession," Greenspan told a Merrill Lynch investor forum, an official at the US investment bank said.

The US economy grew at a 1.3 per cent annualised rate in the first quarter - the slowest pace in four years.

Speaking via a satellite link from Washington, Greenspan said he had not changed his view on the health of the world''s biggest economy.

His remarks contrast with those of Fed chairman Ben Bernanke who has played down the risk of a recession in the US.

Greenspan said China, the world''s fourth-largest economy, would bear the brunt of its artificially weak currency - the renminbi - and that money supply there was growing too rapidly.

He, however, discounted the chances of a repeat of 1997, saying that the impact of any slowdown in the US economy on Southeast Asia would be mitigated by high savings rates and domestic consumption.