New
Delhi:
A special report in The Economist this week looks
at the rise of China as it begins to reach out to the
world, starting with its neighbours in Asia. The report
looks at China''s influence in the Asia-Pacific region,
and concludes that it will be many years before it emerges
as the single dominant power in Asia.
It
notes that certain countries in Asia are already seeking
to balance China''s rise, whilst at the same time looking
to the US to remain a powerful presence.
For
the past several years China''s rise as an economic power
has brought forth a special report from The Economist
almost every year. These reports have focussed on China''s
domestic transformation, and the challenges that come
with it. With a breakneck rate of economic growth creating
prosperity, this special report does not ignore those
issues. But its main focus is China''s impact on the region
for Asia is changing, and China is the chief cause
of that change.
The
report examines how, until now, the world has come to
China, but now China is going out to the world
a process that has begun with the countries in its immediate
vicinity. It points out that China''s imperative is to
secure the peace and prosperity around its borders that
is necessary for its own peaceful development at home.
At
the same time, securing the resources that fuel the Chinese
industrial revolution also necessitates good neighbourly
relations. Where once China''s diplomacy was narrow, prickly
and suspicious, it has since become omni-directional.
The past few years have seen not just a sharp improvement
in bilateral ties with most of its neighbours, but also
an unequivocal commitment by China to the kind of multilateralism
of which it was once deeply suspicious, The Economist
observes.
The
Economist report also asserts that Asian neighbours cannot
ignore China''s economic rise. This year or next, China''s
annual exports will top $1 trillion for the first time.
China''s imports, according to the World Bank, will grow
more than America''s this year, becoming the biggest source
of import growth in the world. While the 10 ASEAN countries
have seen record foreign direct investment, "much
investment outside China is in fact contingent on the
China boom" the report observes.
Conversely,
it notes that China''s rise also represents a vast environmental
threat, both to itself and the region. A logging ban in
China has led to forest stripping in West Africa, Indonesia,
Papua New Guinea and Cambodia. China is already the world''s
biggest emitter of sulphur dioxide, and will in 2009 overtake
the United States as the biggest source of greenhouse
gases, the report continues. Acknowledging this, China
has committed to reducing its energy intensity by 20 per
cent.
The
report also asserts that there exists an uncertainty at
the heart of China''s rise. China''s long-term intentions
about what to do with its power remain ambiguous. For
example, growth in the military budget may reflect China''s
growing prestige, desire to protect its shipments of oil
and other commodities, and deter Taiwan from declaring
independence.
The
report also poses the question why China built roads,
ports and pipelines in Myanmar and Pakistan, connecting
West and South West China with the Bay of Bengal and the
Indian Ocean. They may serve to help develop China''s poorer
regions or one day serve to bring supplies to China''s
blue-water navy.
The
special report argues that doubts about China''s intentions
stem less from its actions overseas than from the domestic
front. China is wracked by problems of social inequality,
environmental damage and government corruption.
China''s
authoritarian mode of government stands at odds with a
region that is feeling its way, however imperfectly, towards
more accountable
forms of government: the rule of law, democracy, human
rights. At the very least, across much of Asia, these
values stand in quiet opposition to China''s, concludes
the report.
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