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Long range forecast for SW monsoon scaled back a bitnews
03 July 2006

Thiruvananthapuram: Updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon has now been pegged back a bit to 92 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The Met''s operational long-range forecast in April had said that the rainfall was likely to be 93 per cent of the LPA.

In its current update the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the realised rainfall over the country as a whole till June 28 is now deficient by eight per cent. The IMD has blamed the cutback in expected rainfall on a warming trend in the equatorial Central Pacific, which has now slipped below the El Nino thresholds.

However, the rainfall for the crucial month of July is predicted to be 97 per cent, as a well marked `low'' in the Bay of Bengal intensified twice over to turn into a deep depression during the last 24 hours ending Sunday.

Forecasts for seasonal rainfall for the broad homogenous regions are (as a percentage of the respective LPA): Northwest India (91); Central India (90); South Peninsula (97) and Northeast India (94). These figures assume a model statistical error of plus or minus eight per cent.

Meanwhile, a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said on Sunday that widespread rain, with isolated heavy rainfall, is expected over gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand during the next 48 hours.

The ongoing rainfall over Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra and South Gujarat is also likely to increase with heavy to very heavy falls predicted at few places. The upper air cyclonic circulation over south Gujarat and north Konkan coasts is seen persisting, as does an offshore trough from north Konkan to Karnataka coast. With prevailing conditions the monsoon is expected to remain in an active phase during the next five days.


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Long range forecast for SW monsoon scaled back a bit