Thiruvananthapuram:
Updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon
has now been pegged back a bit to 92 per cent of the long
period average (LPA). The Met''s operational long-range
forecast in April had said that the rainfall was likely
to be 93 per cent of the LPA.
In
its current update the Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD) has said that the realised rainfall over the country
as a whole till June 28 is now deficient by eight per
cent. The IMD has blamed the cutback in expected rainfall
on a warming trend in the equatorial Central Pacific,
which has now slipped below the El Nino thresholds.
However,
the rainfall for the crucial month of July is predicted
to be 97 per cent, as a well marked `low'' in the Bay of
Bengal intensified twice over to turn into a deep depression
during the last 24 hours ending Sunday.
Forecasts
for seasonal rainfall for the broad homogenous regions
are (as a percentage of the respective LPA): Northwest
India (91); Central India (90); South Peninsula (97) and
Northeast India (94). These figures assume a model statistical
error of plus or minus eight per cent.
Meanwhile,
a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (NCMRWF) said on Sunday that widespread rain,
with isolated heavy rainfall, is expected over gangetic
West Bengal, Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand
during the next 48 hours.
The
ongoing rainfall over Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra
and South Gujarat is also likely to increase with heavy
to very heavy falls predicted at few places. The upper
air cyclonic circulation over south Gujarat and north
Konkan coasts is seen persisting, as does
an offshore trough from north Konkan to Karnataka coast.
With prevailing conditions the monsoon is expected to
remain in an active phase during the next five days.
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