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New Delhi: The index of industrial production grew 6.4 per cent year-on-year in July 2002 as compared to 2.6 per cent in the same period last year. Industrial growth was 4 per cent in June 2002. The mining sector showed a double-digit growth rate of 12.5 per cent year-on-year in July 2002, while manufacturing and electricity grew at the rate of 5.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively. The most positive news in the July 2002 numbers was the 9.7-per cent growth in the capital goods sector compared to a negative 7.4-per cent growth in the same period last year. Capital goods growth has been positive in the last three months. This trend augurs well for industrial growth in the coming months. The other positive is the double-digit growth of 15.6 per cent in consumer non-durables. Consumer durables continued to show a negative growth rate for the second consecutive month. Industrial growth picked up right from the beginning of this fiscal and hovered around 4 per cent till June 2002 before leaping to 6.4 per cent in July 2002. This is the effect of a rise in rural demand for industrial goods. Rural demand has picked up due to a healthy growth of 5.4 per cent in agricultural incomes in the last financial year. The double-digit growth in consumer durables also supports this fact. The positive growth in almost all sectors is also a good indicator of a broad-based recovery. The negative growth in consumer durables can be attributed to the fact that this sector continued to have high growth rates even in the last two years of an industrial slump. Credit was used as the strategy to keep up sales. The market seems to have saturated now and it is difficult to maintain growth. Growth Trend:
| % YoY Chg. | Jan-
02 | Feb-
02 | Mar-
02 | Apr-
02 | May-
02 | Jun-
02 | Jul-
02 | | General Index (IIP) | 3.7 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 6.4 | | Mining Quarrying | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 12.5 | | Manufacturing | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5.7 | | Electricity | 4.0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | | Use-based Classification | | | | | | | | | Basic Goods | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | | Capital Goods | -4.7 | 1.1 | 4.7 | -1.4 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 9.7 | | Intermediate Goods | 2.5 | 1.8 | -2.9 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | | Consumer Goods | 7.2 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 8.5 | | Consumer Durables | 15.5 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 0.2 | -4.5 | -7.6 | | Consumer Non-Durables | 4.9 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 15.6 | Comparison across years: | % YoY Chg. | Jul-
98 | Jul-
99 | Jul-
00 | Jul-
01 | Jul-
02 | | General Index (IIP) | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 6.4 | | Mining Quarrying | 2.9 | 4.7 | 2.0 | -2.6 | 12.5 | | Manufacturing | 3.2 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 5.7 | | Electricity | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 6.2 | | Use-based Classification | | | | | | | Basic Goods | 2.6 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 7.1 | | Capital Goods | 8.3 | 23.2 | 2.3 | -7.4 | 9.7 | | Intermediate Goods | 4.9 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 | | Consumer Goods | 1.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 8.5 | | Consumer Durables | -4.2 | -4.2 | 20.3 | 15.2 | -7.6 | | Consumer Non-Durables | 2.6 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 15.6 |
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