Finance
minister Palaniappan Chidambaram says that the
fertiliser subsidy, which has gone up by Rs5,000 crore,
needs to be delivered directly to farmers. According
to him, cutting customs duty alone is not a price-restraining
measure.
In
an exclusive interview to CNBC-TV18''s Raghav Bahl,
this evening, he also clarified that employee stock
option plans (ESOPs) will attract the fringe benefit
tax but it has yet to be decided whether it would be
at income tax rate as being speculated. (Watch Video:
Interview
with finance minister)
He
also says that the finance ministry and the Reserve
Bank of India are not opposed to each other on fiscal
policies. In his view, the "dharma"
(duty) of the RBI is to ensure financial stability while
that of the government is to promote growth.
Yesterday,
people who saw you giving the Budget speech must have
been rubbing their eyes in disbelief. Here was a man,
who ten years ago with a much worse macro-economic situation
took a bold leap of faith, but yesterday sitting on
a dream macro economic situation was presenting a virtually
status quo budget?
Wrong. The dreams of 1997 and the dreams of 2007 are
very different. I am lucky to be part of that dream
and I am lucky to be part of this dream.
In
1997, the dream was India must join the rest of the
world. India must take wings. India must accept her
share of responsibility to become a key driver of economic
growth in the world. Those were the dreams in 1997 and
the engines that could have driven those dreams obviously
were industry and services sector.
The
dreams of 2007 are very different. The growth today
is a given, it is not a cyclical shift it is a structural
shift. Given that the growth is a given and industry
and services seem to be virtually on auto pilot, they
are mature, confident enterprising, willing to take
on the rest of the world. This is a time to dream other
dreams namely to make growth more inclusive.
I
will come to your assertion that growth is a given which
may be a bit too facile and does not quite get reflected
in your numbers. Your Budget yesterday was born under
fear. You banned forward trading in wheat and rice but
here is a government, a prime minister, a finance minister,
who believes in the efficiency of markets and then you
get scared?
I think you are drawing very facile conclusions. The
economics division, which enjoys a large degree of autonomy,
has a section on forward markets, on the economic survey,
which justifies forward market as a price discovery
mechanism. But there is another view. There is another
view that there is too much speculation, there is too
much trading in "thin" commodities and I am
no expert to say, which view is right. Let me make that
very clear, I am no expert to say, which view is right.
One
month ago, the FMC restricted forward trading in tur
and urad. Tur prices have declined. There
maybe no cause and effect relation but it has declined.
We
do not know, which view is right, which view is wrong
in the given context, therefore we have appointed an
expert committee, for I do not have to take a view now.
I have to take a view only when the expert committee
report comes to me.
Let me say why I believe that it is a status quo
Budget. You had 20 per cent, 30 per cent, 40 per cent
unheard levels of growth in your tax revenues.
That is not because some kind God smiled on us. It is
because the department (Central Board of Direct taxes)
worked hard.
You
had that much of a flexibility before you and you wanted
to rein inflation. What then stopped you from bringing
duties down to 7 per cent or 8 per cent? In one fell
swoop, you would have killed inflationary expectations
in the economy?
Not correct, I will tell you why. When an economy is
firing at near full speed, when actual output exceeds
potential output, cutting customs duties alone does
not act as a price-restraining measure because the demand
is so high. You can still sell your product at the price
that you are able to command.
That''s
a strange argument I am hearing from you. You have said
consistently that this inflation is far more supply
induced than demand.
You talked about cutting duties further. I am answering
that.
You
were giving me the reason for not cutting?
You must not get into an argument. You said that I should
have cut custom duty further as it will be in disinflationary.
It
would have killed inflationary expectations?
That is not correct. I will tell you why it''s not correct
and that''s what I am trying to explain to you. You can
agree or disagree, that''s a different matter.
I
have been advised by my economic advisors to cut customs
duties. That is disinflationary. But the further step
that you are suggesting, that cutting it deeper is more
disinflationary, we do not buy that argument. That will
apply only when there is industry working at less than
full capacity.
When
industry is producing at full capacity, in fact actual
output is exceeding potential output and they have got
pricing power, merely cutting customs duties more does
not make it more disinflationary.
That''s
the sub-text of status quo that I am talking about?
That is an economic advise I have received and I think
it is a sound advice.
Another
example. Last year and the year before that we all applauded
you for the kind of tax reforms and the convergence
to the single rate that you talked about. We were all
expecting this year that you would cut excise, move
service tax up sort of converge to that single rate
that you been talking about. But you didn''t touch it.
Nothing.
I will tell you why. How can I do that when only a few
days before the Budget we reached an agreement with
state governments and gave them an outline of that agreement.
You do not know the details of agreement. Under that
agreement we have agree to work together on a roadmap
for GST.
They
have accepted in principle the GST. They have not yet
agreed on a roadmap. At the end of that roadmap we will
have to agree on a rate on which all taxes will converge.
We have not agreed on the convergence rate.
What
is the finance ministry''s view on 16 per cent CENVAT?
Well, there are 30 state governments. This requires
a constitutional amendments. State government have to
ratify that amendment. I can''t thrust an opinion down
the throat of state governments.
The
consultative process has not even begun; we have just
reached an agreement to begin the consultative process.
Once I know what the convergence rate will be then I
have to move the excise duty, service tax and they have
to move the VAT towards that rate.
At
this stage without knowing what the convergence rate
is how do I move the service tax and the excise duty
rate?
But
that is something you had spoken about last year, you
said 24 per cent and 32 per cent rates and that you
would start moving towards the convergence rate. Now
the convergence rates could be 15 per cent, 16 per cent
or 18 per cent?
Kelkar has recommended 20 per cent. Therefore, there
is no agreement yet on a convergence rate. And without
an agreement we cannot move either service tax or excise
duty. If I reach a convergence rate agreement this year
then next year we will make the movement.
Surely you could not be thinking of 20 per cent?
Kelkar has recommended 20 per cent.
That is a recommendation of an academic committee?
I have to consult everyone.
Let
me talk about your Budget deficit that we were expecting
as the big achievement of the Budget.
I
have reached to fiscal deficit target every year.
Yes,
you have but the kind of expectations that you had built
up or the kind of numbers that the government was releasing,
we were all expecting a fiscal deficit of about 3.4
per cent because that is the kind of numbers that were
coming. Your revenue expenditure has been out of control;
you have got to admit that.
Not correct. We have shown Rs25,000 crore more gross
revenue than the BE (budgetary estimate) figure. The
numbers that are released month after month is gross
revenue. 30.5 per cent of that is mandatorily shared
with the states and folks like you do not do that mental
adjustment.
The
30 per cent has to be taken out. Then what is left is
70 per cent. This includes income tax and corporate
income tax, we have moved the last date for assessment
to December 31, which means refunds have to be done
for the first time by March. So January, February and
March is the refund period rather than April, May and
June. Therefore we adjust for the refund set up to be
done therefore what we have projected is absolutely
correct.
I
am just saying that you have a situation where your
tax revenues are running ahead of your projections and
clearly, therefore, if you have not been able to beat
your Budget deficit by a huge margin, your revenue expenditure
is also going ahead of estimates.
My total revenue expenditure from Rs563,000 crore has
gone up to Rs581,000 crore, which means an increase
of Rs18,000 crore. But why is that increase of R18,000
crore?
Fertilizer
alone has already gone up by Rs5,000 crore, interest
payments have increased by about Rs7,000 crore, so that
explains.
That
explains it but that is not a terribly good thing for
the government to be putting out because yes, you have
met your target but your expenditures are not under
control.
I cannot control fertilizer under the present system
that is why I had devoted a paragraph to say that this
system of delivering fertilizer subsidy is wrong, we
have to replace it by better system. We have to deliver
fertilizer subsidy directly to the farmer because I
am aware.
We
have been talking about direct subsidies now for five
or seven years?
But I am pushing the case. But I have to carry conviction
with every one. Interest is a function of rates.
The
kind of growth pessimism that you have built into your
numbers?
Standard question everybody is asking without look at
the numbers.
But
40 [per cent growth on that basis?
40 per cent growth? where did you get the number?
30
per cent - 40 per cent tax buoyancy last year.
That is not correct. 30 per cent goes to the states;
you have to look at net tax revenue to the centre.
But yet you are projecting lower than what you achieved
last year?
I am projecting 20 per cent. Let us look at the numbers
again. Rs442,000 crore last year and Rs548,000 crore
this year. For your information, it took us 48 years
to cross the first Rs100,000- crore mark and here in
one year I am going from Rs442,000 crore to Rs548,000
crore - a Rs106,000-crore increase in gross revenue
works out to a 20-per cent increase.
Then
why is 20 per cent a conservative estimate? It is an
aggressive estimate. My department of taxes says, every
year you ask us to collect 20 per cent more. We have
done it for three years and you are asking us to repeat
that feat year-after-year?
One
issue which may not be large on your agenda, where clearly
the finance ministry seems to have got it completely
wrong and that is Fringe Benefit Tax of Employee Stock
Ownership Plans, or ESOPs. ESOPs are a capital asset.
They are a wealth-creating asset and you are taxing
them like income! Which canon of economic thinking can
ever justify that?
Let me ask you a simple question, is ESOP a Fringe Benefit
or not?
Conceded.
It is a transfer of remuneration from the company via
a capital asset.
So if it is a fringe benefit, it has to be taxed. I
have not yet told you how we are going to calculate
it, how we are going to tax it. All that will come in
the rules. All that we have said is that ESOP is a fringe
benefit and I am extending FBT to it. You will have
to wait to see how we determine its value, how we tax
it, all that has to be announced once we come up with
the detail.
Therefore
the media, which seems to be suggesting that 34 per
cent as the rate of taxation on the gains realised on
the date of exercising of ESOPs, has got it wrong?
I do not know whether it is wrong or right. All I know
is that at the moment it is completely premature because
I have not seen the detail calculations yet. So, how
could the media claim to know what it is.
Therefore
it is not a given that these will be taxed at the income
tax rate?
It is a given that it will be taxed as the FBT. What
the base will be, how the base will be calculated, how
the tax will apply all that has to be worked out.
I
think that would come as a major relief because otherwise
what seems to have been suggested and wasn''t denied
strenuously yesterday by anybody is that you are actually
going to tax capital assets at the rate of income tax?
Who is in a position to deny it or affirm it except
me? You didn''t put the question to me yesterday.
But
I am talking to you now?
And I am telling you today, we have announced the policy
that FBT will include ESOPs. Now what the ESOPs should
be, how it will be valued, how it will be taxed all
that has to be worked out.
This
government was increasingly getting seen to be too anti-urban?
No, not at all. Play back what the three presidents
of the three chambers said this morning your television
channel.
I
think what you said yesterday in one of your appearances
was that ESOPs are largely given to senior managers.
That is not correct. ESOPs have lead to an entrepreneurial
upsurge in this country.
Did
you know that many developed countries are moving away
from ESOPs?
That
is for a variety of other reasons. The fact is that
ESOP is a wealth creating measure. I do not think any
country in the world taxes ESOPs at income tax rate?
There
are countries in the world, which tax ESOPs. And all
that I have said is, we will tax ESOPs.
There
is a feeling that you, the ministry of finance and the
Reserve Bank of India, are working at cross-purposes
as far as they understand of how hard you must slam
the breaks.
The dharma of the Reserve Bank of India is price
stability, monetary stability; the dharma of a government
is to promote growth. As prime Minister said yesterday,
there is always a trade off between growth and inflation.
So
when the RBI and the government consult each other.
We consult them, they consult us. Each one''s presents
quite legitimately its side of the case. Until that
your story is correct.
The
rest of your story is pure fiction that government and
RBI are at loggerheads about dealing with the situation,
we consult each other, we come to an understanding and
then the RBI announces monetary policy changes and we
check the fiscal measures.
Are
we correct in assuming that the ministry of finance
is in agreement with the policy, which has brought interest
rates? When you took over, the interest that the government
was paying was nearly 4.9 per cent or 5 per cent. It
was in that region, maybe 5.2 per cent and corporates
were paying 8 per cent, 9 per cent. Today the government
is picking up money at well over 8 per cent and the
corporates today have to borrow at about 13 per cent,
14 per cent. That is the reality.
That is not correct, the corporates do not say that.
I do not know about your company but corporates do not
say that. The point is, it is true that when this government
took over, the top corporates were able to borrow at
sub-PLR, and today they are perhaps borrowing at PLR.
The
reason is interest rates have indeed moved up but please
remember in 2001, home loan rates were 14 per cent.
We are not going back. This is not going back or going
forward, these are interest rates, which are determined
by the Reserve Bank of India by deciding the policy
rates reflecting the requirement of the economy. If
today inflation is 6.5 per cent, it requires a response.
But
inflation was 4.5 per cent when interest rates were
8-9 per cent. PLR is 12 per cent -12.5 per cent.
The rate has moved up, CRR has been increased four times.
So
is the ministry of finance in consonance with such a
conservative policy?
Now you are questioning the RBI policy. I am in entire
agreement with the RBI policy, every time they have
made a policy rate change, they have consulted the government
and I have conveyed our support after discussion. After
discussion we have come to an understanding, I have
always supported RBI''s monetary management.
You
could not have supported a policy, hikes the CRR when
24 hours before that you are telling the banks don''t
raise home loans rates?
You have got your sequence wrong. I have told the banks
RBI has increased a risk weight on four assets, but
not housing. It was increased on four assets not including
housing and the RBI statement underlined the fact housing
was not included.
So
I told the banks because the meeting had been scheduled
earlier, the RBI had increased the risk weight for four
assets and only housing is not included, so please do
not tweak the rates for housing. What is wrong with
that?
Why
do we perceive that you believe it is the assessment
of ministry of finance, that in the RBI we have a situation
where it is an over dependence on monetary policy when
the problem is actually in the supply side?
RBI has only got monetary policy.
But
its over depending on that instrument?
I do not agree, RBI as a duty to be ahead of the curve,
RBI has to anticipate the inflationary situation and
take measures. RBI in fact has adjusted the repo rate
four times and CRR four times in order to contain inflation.
Despite that inflation has moved up to 6.5 per cent,
the reason is supply side, which RBI has no control
over.
13
per cent or 14 per cent interest rates could hurt economic
growth?
If they persist for a long period, they could hurt economic
growth. That is why every effort is being made to moderate
inflation in the medium-term, so that these high interest
rates do not persist.
We
are 4 per cent away from that era of 18 per cent interest
rate and 3 per cent GDP growth; we are not very far
away.
You are exaggerating. In 2000-2001, not in the distant
past, when some of your friends were in government here,
some of my friends were in government here, for 48 out
of 52 weeks, inflation was over 6 per cent. In 22 of
those weeks, it was over 7 per cent. In 12 of those
weeks it was over 8 per cent.
But
see what the economic growth rate then was as well?
Economic growth rate that time was 4.5 per cent. Therefore,
they had low growth and high inflation and I wonder
what question you put to them at that time.
That
is in the past. but I am saying you could be seriously
headed towards that situation again because you have
got high interest rates, you have got high inflation
only high growth and if that comes down the equation
is the same?
Why do you assume that it will come down? I believe
there is a structural shift in the growth cycle. It
is not a cyclical shift, so does Raghuram Rajan (IMF
economist), so does Steven Roche, who met me.
We
believe there has been a structural shift, thanks to
the engines of industry and services firing in all cylinders.
We have a situation of high inflation today, not as
high as it was in 2000-01, still much lower than 2000-01.
We are therefore taking steps, fiscal monetary and supply
side to moderate that inflation. If we succeed in moderating
the inflation, interest rates will decline.
That
was my question, how hard are you going to slam the
breaks?
I can only answer in the language of prime minister.
We need to moderate inflation without hurting growth.
It is a fine balancing act but I am sure we can manage
it.
You
are saying the RBI is doing that fine balancing act?
RBI is consulting the government before taking any steps
and it will be untruthful to me to say RBI does not
consult the government. RBI is consulting the government
fully and comprehensively.
You
are comfortable with the policy stance that RBI has
adopted?
The final policy stance adopted by RBI has the full
support of the government; let me make that very clear
to our viewers.
You
will see a moderation in interest rates - that is the
expectation and assessment of the finance minister.
Once
inflation moderates, interest rates too will moderate.
Down
to what level?
That depends on how quickly and to what level inflation
moderates.
You
must be having some assessment?
If inflation goes back to 4 per cent - 5 per cent, interest
rates also
will go back to where they were.
To
about 8 per cent - 9 per cent, prime lending rates?
It should go back to at least between p per cent and
10 per cent.