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Normal rainfall in July says meteorological department news
01 July 2008

New Delhi: The forecast of rainfall for the month of July across the country is likely to be 98 per cent of its long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 9 per cent, says the India Meteorological Department.

The forecast is bound to gladden farmers since July  rainfall is important for the agricultural sector. If the forecast is according to IMD predictions, farm productivity this year could be good, leading to a decline in the inflation rate. The LPA for the all-India July rainfall is 29.3 cms.

The IMD also revised upward its forecast for the season as a whole. As per the new forecast, rainfall over the country as a whole and for the season in its entirety is likely to be 100 per cent of the seasonal LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent. In the earlier forecast issued in April, the IMD had predicted that the rainfall could be 99 per cent of the seasonal LPA. Then, the model error was plus or minus 5 per cent.

Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2008 South-West Monsoon Season is likely to be 96 per cent of its LPA over North-West India, 10 1per cent of its LPA over North-East India, 101 per cent of its LPA over Central India and 98 per cent of its LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.

The LPA for the all-India, season-wide rainfall is 89 cms. As in the case of the LPA for nation-wide July rain, this figure too is based on rainfall data from 1941 to 1991.

Yesterday, IMD also issued region-wise forecast for the season as a whole. South peninsula, as per IMD definition, comprises Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Central India is made up of states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra, Goa and Orissa, the northwest Delhi, Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir and the northeast West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkand, Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, and Sikkim.


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Normal rainfall in July says meteorological department