US Election Day: The final call

04 November 2008

Despite the unreliability of some early exit polls, as evidenced in the previous 2004 presidential elections, American media are pondering how long to wait before making the final call on the winner of the 2008 elections. The predicament is a genuine one, for this time round experts and opinion polls have consistently been calling the election in favour of Senator Barack Obama for a long period of time and it is likely that the outcome may become clear as soon as 8 pm EST.

The first polls begin to close at 6 pm EST.

If the assessment of senior media executives, that the final outcome would likely become clear by 8 pm, turns out to be true then the final call on the outcome of the election may have to be made even before polls in the eastern states of New York and Rhode Island would have closed, let alone those of the western heavies, such as Texas and California.

Media executives say that outcomes of key battleground states, such as that of Virginia could be available by 7 pm and those of Indiana, Florida and Pennsylvania by 8 pm. The results of these battleground states, they point out, may be enough to reveal the eventual outcome for Senator John McCain has to carry all of these states to stay in contention until the heavies, such as Texas and California, come into play.

According to these executives, if Senator Obama is winning these early states heavily there really would be no point in continuing to pretend that Senator John McCain would win a state like California to turn the election around. For this election, California is solidly Democrat.

Though things do seem to be fairly clearcut this time around, the predicament for media networks arises from a recent example when on Election Day 2004 early exit poll data suggested that Senator John Kerry might be on track to defeat President Bush.