labels: interviews, markets - general
Markets at very attractive levels: Vallabh Bhansali, ENAM Consultants news
22 May 2006

Vallabh Bhansali of ENAM Consultants believes that the markets are at mouth watering levels currently. He says these are god sent opportunities for investors.

He adds that there is no logic behind prices reaching these levels. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Vallabh Bhansali.

On Thursday you said that the economy is looking very good, and if value were to be found you would find it at lower levels, how is it looking now?
I think the levels are absolutely mouth watering. Some of the prices are beyond any kind of logic and reason. Normally I don't talk about individual stocks but I see several sectors, IPO's, several companies trading close to prices that were six months or one year ago.

One should forget to look at the Sensex and just look at the individual stock prices and these are god sent opportunities for long-term investors.

Which sectors look attractive?
The rupee has jumped and a lot of export driven sectors have become attractive, although some of them had been hammered some time back.

There are companies that have given guidance and if one reads the new facts into those guidance, then what else can one want. It is all there written on the wall.

How much of the fall of the last couple of days, particularly today would you put down to the systemic issues of margining, bank transfers, inability to get money across on time to the broker to pay up for marked up margins?
I think it is all mixed up to say that there is no systemic issue in terms of margin calls coming into play. I don't think that the markets started to go down because of margin calls. I think it started with some kind of panic somewhere or some profit booking, which led to this spiral down which creates margin call pressures.

In that case do you think some or most of the poison is out of the system or do you recon there are chances of this sort of swing and wild dash downwards again?
I think the poison has definitely gone out, that means the poison was undue optimism. People were coming into the market thinking every week one can hope to make 2-3 per cent and that was the difficulty that has definitely gone out of the system.

What is your sense since you talk to such large number of global and local institutional investors? Do you think they will wait for the situation to stabilise over the next couple of days before making serious value commitment or do you think that process might have started today?
I think there will be the whole average process that they will want to commit themselves to and so would buy some in this troubled times. But would they put all the money in this trouble time? Now that would be doubtful and that is not even wise. Since the fall has been so steep nobody knows where the market will settle whether the market has to go down before it goes up or has to go up before it goes down is a classic dilemma that people are facing. But lots of people have made commitments and are continuing to make commitments at these levels.

Can the whole texture of the market change after this fall of the last 5-6 days because so far from January to April, we have seen euphoria? Haven't looked back with meaningful correction. After this fall do you think the market might finally consolidate for a bit, which it hasn't done after the October correction last year?
One does not think the euphoria will come back in the short-term. We will need a new formation of reasons for that to happen, particularly in the light of macro-economic conditions around the world where nobody knows where the liquidity flows next. There has been a scare in commodity and emerging markets. We have siren songs playing loud from the US and well-developed markets.

Therefore liquidity is looking for direction at this point of time. Given that it would be prudent to think we will take some time to build the new formation for the next phase of the bull market. But I do think that India is poised for a good period in the next five-ten years.

Is there a chance of a situation where liquidity might turn negative for this market or do you think that is not likely?
I think liquidity definitely turned negative over the last few days and I expect liquidity to move in and out. But the attention that India will get or will not will be dissimilar to what we have got in the past. The kind of players may change but India will continue to remain an important asset class as far as I can see.

The technical mayhem with F&O leverage, etc, will play itself out in the next couple of days. But broadly looking at what the dollar has been doing in the last few days and which way the interest rates signals in the US are pointing, do you think this kind of a bearish phase in emerging markets could last a while longer?
The emerging markets may be a difficult question to answer, as I am a fundamentally oriented person. So in that sense, India will be looked at by itself as a class because our economy is not very much linked to the dollar flows as some of the other emerging markets are. Therefore what may happen to the other emerging markets may not happen to India. A very small part of our economy is dependent on dollar flows.

You alluded the commodity correction as well and you have made the point about some earnings in the commodity universe disappointing. How do you see that part of the puzzle shaping up, both in the global context and in the domestic context?
On the commodity side, the price hike that commodity companies have had compared to the last quarter or last year's results is still fantastic. Therefore I see commodity companies continuing to remain attractive at certain valuations, the correction in those companies has been sharp and severe and therefore while commodities may swing from where they were, lot of those companies are probably still attractively priced because some of those companies are cost leaders and that's matters in commodities.

There was value in the market between 9000-10000, but it started to wane with every passing day with the rise in the market. What kind of a band do you see the market finding its feet in now, where is there some semblance of value?
I do not track the index so much but we do look at individual stocks and that becomes more important in a bull market. So if we look at individual stock prices some of them have come out into absolute mouth-watering level and they are deep down in the water. So in that sense some of those stocks may be at 7000-8000 index, and that is what we are looking at and advising clients to come out and buy.

I would like to talk about an unrelated point, that is the question of the CBDT circular. Most knowledgeable people knew that CBDT circular has nothing to do with FIIs. Several scares in the past have proved to be worthless and the government has been protective about the FIIs inflows. But the equity markets in this country have been built by legends like Kisan Choksey, Chandrakant Sampat and so on, who are individual investors and who have promoted this equity cult.

I think the finance minister and the ministry officials all are doing their sincere most to tackle this. I would urge that one also needs to pay attention to the genuine concerns on this front. No one is talking about taxing or non-taxing or what deserves to be taxed. But there is some confusion in people's mind, which I have heard and that would be useful.

Given those concerns domestically and given the corrections that are global, do you expect to see this market go into a consolidation phase because that is something we haven't seen since last October?
If I say that I am bullish on this country for the next five-ten years, we will have several phases of consolidations and it would be difficult to distinguish between one phase and the other. So even in this kind of a bull market, it is necessary to attract the attention of people and catch their imagination.

Therefore one should not be too disturbed by these fluctuations. Whatever goes up very fast, comes down equally fast. So I think maybe the last phase of the market was unhealthy and that it has now got corrected. I think the party should continue for people who are two-five years oriented, they will forget this soon.

also see : Current levels very attractive for investing: Pankaj Razdan, CEO, Pru ICICI MF
Mkt to remain volatile for another month: Nirmal Jain, MD, India Infoline
Fundamentals, not rumours guide LIC: Sushobhan Sarkar, ED-investments, LIC
Correction to keep interest alive in market: Amit Chandra, MD, DSP ML

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Markets at very attractive levels: Vallabh Bhansali, ENAM Consultants