Global PC market to shrink 9.7% in 2013: report

30 Aug 2013

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Global shipment of personal computers is expected to fall 9.7 per cent in 2013 as adoption of mobile devices gathers momentum and demand for PCs is decreasing in emerging markets particularly in China, according to a report released yesterday by the US market intelligence firm International Data Corp (IDC).

The forecast is lower than Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC's earlier estimate of a 7.7-per cent drop in worldwide PC sales including desktops and portable computers.

Total PC shipments during the current year is estimated to be 315 million units, down from 349 million in 2012. Sales of desktops will be 134 million while that of portable PCs will be 181 million.

The scheduled launch of Microsoft's latest Windows 8.1 operating system later this year will be unable to reverse the falling trend, the report said.

"Advances in PC hardware, such as improvements in the power efficiency of x86 processors remain encouraging, and Windows 8.1 is also expected to address a number of well-documented concerns,'' IDC senior research analyst Jay Chou said.

PCs with Windows 8 OS have a tablet-like touch user interface, but they are more expensive, leading users to opt for attractively-priced tablets instead.

'' However, the current PC usage experience falls short of meeting changing usage patterns that are spreading through all regions, especially as tablet price and performance become ever more attractive," Chou said.

Decline in emerging markets will be led by China which is expected to post a double-digit drop in 2013 compared to last year due to high inventory and continued enthusiasm for tablets and smartphones.

Global PC shipments fell by 11.4 per cent to 76 million units in the second quarter.

The fall in the PC market is likely to continue in 2014, followed by a marginal growth beginning 2015 to reach 320 million units in 2017, well below the peak volumes of around 353 million achieved in 2011, IDC said.

On the other hand, tablet shipments are forecast to grow 58 per cent to 227 million units in 2013 compared to last year, although IDC has modestly cut this year's forecast by 0.8 per cent from its earlier prediction of 229 million.

The fall is expected on account of growing competition from larger smartphones as well as wearable devices like Google's Glass.

However, the growth is likely to continue at a rapid pace and tablet shipment will reach 407 million units by 2017.

"We expect average selling prices to continue to compress as more mainstream vendors utilise low-cost components to better compete with the white-box tablet vendors that continue to enjoy widespread traction in the market despite typically offering lower-quality products and poorer customer experiences," IDC said.

Share of mature markets including North America, Europe and Japan will gradually decrease from the current level of 61 per cent to 49 per cent in 2017, while that of emerging markets will grow from 39 per cent to 51 per cent during the period.

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