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IDC sees solid PC market in second half of 2002 news
Our Corporate Bureau
06 December 2002

Mumbai: Total personal computer (PC) shipments in 2002 are expected to reach 136.2 million, up 1.6 per cent from the prior year, although total shipments will still be 2.6 per cent below the market's peak in 2000, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC).

In 2003 and beyond, IDC continues to expect improvement in the business and consumer sectors, while government spending will slow to reflect reduced budgets. Risks from economic and political factors may also constrain future growth, although IDC projects shipment growth of 8.3 per cent in 2003 and 11 per cent in 2004 before shipments slow again.

''We continue to expect slow worldwide PC shipment growth for the next several quarters, before the market accelerates in the latter half of 2003,'' said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. ''While business spending has been slow to recover, we believe it will pick up in the first half of 2003, and market drivers like portable adoption, wireless networking, broadband adoption, new designs, media convergence, and TCO improvements will support moderate growth.''

Roger Kay, director of Client Computing at IDC says, "Although consumer shipments continue to be down substantially from their peak, the market has resumed a seasonal pattern and reflects growing demand despite mixed consumer indicators. Although US enterprises remain on the sidelines now, we expect business to lead market growth in the second half of 2003.''

Regional Outlook
United States - Although third quarter results were boosted by government security spending and early Thanksgiving indications suggest improved consumer spending, security concerns and war in Iraq may depress business and consumer spending. Government spending is also likely to decline as state and local governments face shrinking budgets in an off-election year.
Western Europe - Despite continued declines in public sector spending, consumer and business spending both beat expectations by recording positive growth in the third quarter. Even with the improvements, total shipments are expected to be down 0.5 per cent in 2002 and up less than 6 per cent in 2003 as PC users in Europe have resisted upgrading older systems.
Japan - The Japanese market has suffered from poor corporate earnings and declining economic confidence. Economic improvement will be a key factor going forward while the market remains selective and price conscious.
Asia Pacific - Government spending in China was largely responsible for better-than-expected performance in Asia Pacific, although recovery is under way in most countries in the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty over global economic strength, local terrorist bombings, and the potential fallout from a war in Iraq have established a more cautious investment climate.

US and worldwide PC shipments and growth, 2000-2004
Region
2000
2001
2002*
2003*
2004*
USA units (M)
 
 
 
 
 
Consumer
19.3
15.5
16.6
17.8
19.0
Commercial
32.7
30.5
30.9
32.9
36.8
Total
52.0
46.1
47.4
50.8
55.8
Worldwide units (M)
 
 
 
 
 
Consumer
52.4
47.1
48.0
51.8
56.4
Commercial
87.5
87.0
88.1
95.7
107.3
Total
139.9
134.1
136.2
147.5
163.8
USA growth (%)
 
 
 
 
 
Consumer
 
-19.6%
6.5%
7.8%
6.5%
Commercial
 
-6.6%
1.2%
6.7%
11.7%
Total
 
-11.4%
3.0%
7.1%
9.9%
Worldwide growth (%)
 
 
 
 
 
Consumer
 
-10.1%
2.0%
7.8%
9.0%
Commercial
 
-0.6%
1.4%
8.6%
12.1%
Total
 
-4.2%
1.6%
8.3%
11.0%

*Forecast data
(Shipments are in millions of units)

Source: IDC, December 2002

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.

 


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IDC sees solid PC market in second half of 2002