Will oil rise again?

12 January 2007

Most likely, says Craig R Smith, CEO, Swiss America Trading, and author of Black Gold Stranglehold CNBC-TV18 shares with domain-b its exclusive interview with Smith.

Crude prices plunged below $52 and fuel use dropped 4 per cent last week as mild weather curbed heating-oil use. Craig R Smith, CEO, Swiss America Trading, and author of Black Gold Stranglehold shares his outlook on where crude prices are headed.

He sees crude at $55-$60 / bbl by March 2007. However, he says that crude could go to $60-$60 / bbl, if there is violence in Iran and Nigeria and feels that there are too many geopolitical risks to keep oil at lower levels CNBC-TV18 shares with domain-b its exclusive interview with Smith:

What do you see as the few next weeks in terms of how this market is going to move?
Today I am not as bearish as many in the US are about the oil market at this moment. I think there are way too many geopolitical risks still out there that could easily influence this market on the upside and of course the one that first comes to mind is the potential of the recently announced OPEC cuts.

If you ever followed OPEC,s logic and its follow through, they have announced, it takes few months for member nations to come under compliance. The announced cut of 1.7-million barrels will be fully implemented by February 1 and will be very bullish for the market.

Demand-supply factors seem to be loaded against crude, inventory seems high and demand sluggish. When do you think these equations will even out?
I think the supply and demand is one issue and obviously the demand has settled down somewhat with the recent changes of weather in the largest consumer of oil in the world that is the United States. But I think that can be very short-lived from what the forecasters are saying for the rest of the winter. But I am more concerned about the supply side from the geopolitical standpoint.