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Mumbai:
Standard & Poor's upgraded its long-term foreign currency
rating on India by one notch to `BB+' with a stable outlook.
The agency also affirmed the long-term local currency
and short - term ratings at `BB+'. The `BB+' rating is
still below investment grade, though only one notch.
The
upgrade on the foreign currency reflects India's improved
external position and growth prospects, the agency said
in a press release.
India's
external position, stronger than all other sovereigns
in `BB' rating category, is resilient and likely to be
maintained in the coming years, the agency noted. The
country's foreign exchange reserves mitigate the risk
of volatility in external and domestic confidence. "The
strong growth in export earnings, particularly from the
service and manufacturing sectors, as well as non-debt
foreign capital inflows should alleviate the impact of
rising imports. India's external debt and debt service
burden is expected to fall in the years ahead," the
agency said.
S&P
is the third international credit rating agency to upgrade
India in the past year. Moody's Investors Service upgraded
India's foreign currency debt to `Baa3', or investment
grade, from `Ba1' in January 2004. Fitch Ratings also
upgraded India's foreign debt in January 2004 to `BB+'
from `BB'.
S&P
said that India's economic prospects are good with GDP
growth likely to hover at 6.5 - 7 per cent in the medium
term. The service sector is dynamic, while the industrial
sector is benefiting from gradual deregulation, trade
liberalisation and modest improvements in infrastructure.
The business environment is likely to improve in the coming
years, sustaining private investment and economic growth.
The banking system has also improved with reforms; it
can now support a higher economic growth while reducing
the contingent risk on the government, the release said.
S&P
also raised its long-term foreign currency rating on the
Export-Import Bank of India to `BB+', in line with the
upgrade on the sovereign credit rating.
The
stable outlook on the ratings reflect the expectations
that the pace of the fiscal correction, further improvements
in the external sector and lifting India's potential growth
rate substantially will be gradual.
The
principal risk to India is generated by a weak profile,
especially its high deficit and debt, and serious fiscal
inflexibility, which is one of the worst among the rated
sovereigns, the release said.
Following
this upgrade, S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency counter party credit ratings on State Bank of
India and ICICI Bank to `BB+' from `BB'. The short-term
foreign currency 'B'
ratings on SBI and ICICI Bank were affirmed. The outlook
on both banks is stable, the agency said in a related
press release.
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