Thinking ahead: Futures researcher Markku Wilenius

14 May 2008

Since the end of 2007, Professor Markku Wilenius has been working as a consultant to the Allianz management on questions regarding the future. As senior vice president, Group Development of Allianz SE, he is working to expand the company's academic network. The 45-year-old scholar from Finland managed the Finland Futures Research Center at the Turku School of Economics for several years, and is a member of the Club of Rome, an international non-governmental organization which advocates long-term global thinking and action.

Professor Wilenius, what exactly does a futures researcher do?
Futures studies is much more than simply gazing into a crystal ball. The discipline not only identifies future developments and risks, but provides suggestions as how to react to them. Labeling major economic, technical or social trends is just the first step. The key question that follows is: How do individual lives change in light of this knowledge?

Where does this sudden concern with sociological questions come from? Aren't insurance companies more interested in analyzing disaster risks and predicting claims?
Naturally, insurers are always very busy estimating possible risks. What is the likelihood of our having a severe storm? What do the accident statistics say about traffic? Or: What danger do terrorist organizations represent? The entire business model of the insurance industry is based on such calculations.

The interaction between customers and insurance companies was also technical for a long time. The one paid their premiums on time, the other reliably adjusted claims. Personal contacts were the exception. That's no longer how things are done these days. Today, insurance customers expect – and rightly so – that their providers also perform immaterial services, so-called "assistance services", and incorporate their expertise in their consulting and services. Thus it is also always immensely important for companies like Allianz to give some thought to the customers of the future, and to changing needs and preferences.

In other words, insurers use futures research to find out how they can sell more insurance policies in the future?
I wouldn't put it that way. That's a little too short-sighted in my opinion. Naturally, Allianz is first and foremost a profit- and growth-oriented company that deals with a certain commodity. However, this commodity is not so tangible. We are not a computer manufacturer that can say: "Look at this nice high-tech toy we made."

Allianz's area of business is a "business of care." The challenge lies in building trust in the company and its promise, which is namely to provide support. Here, futures studies can be a source of ideas. How can the Allianz brand stay attractive over the long term? How can it meet future customer requirements, without losing sight of its long and rich tradition? This involves a great deal of responsibility which goes far beyond the administration of insurance policies.