NCAR study urges 70 per cent emission cuts

16 Apr 2009

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According to a new study, cutting emissions by 70 per cent by the end of the century would cause an average of 2 degrees Celsius rise in temperature of the earth as against 4 degrees if emissions continue growing at their current rate. The study used computer simulations run by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

The 2 degree Celsius difference in warming would make a world of difference with the best chance to avoid massive loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost. It would also limit sea level rise say scientists and help stall the intensity of future changes in snow and rainfall patterns to about half the levels without the emissions cuts.

The study, which was funded by the Energy Department and the National Science Foundation.will feature in the April 21 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. The authors examined climate change's effects and the degree to which they can be influenced can be limited by human actions.

According to Warren Washington lead author of the study and a NCAR climatologist the warming cannot be avoided during this century but if the level of emission cuts can be achieved the threat of climate change can be avoided and the catastrophic consequences averted.

The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has already risen to 380 ppm from 284 parts per million (ppm) before the industrial revolution according to NCAR.

The simulation showed that if greenhouse gas emissions can be held at 450ppm the global temperature would rise 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) by 2100. If the emissions are not checked the greenhouse gas levels would rise to 750ppm by 2100 causing a 2.2 Celsius global temperature rise.

The climate debate in Europe, too is focused on limiting global warming to 2 degrees by 2100 to limit global ecosystem disruptions that could potentially be massive and irreversible. This would require cutting back emissions to at least 50 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050, according to EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas.

A group of scientists, including NASA climatologist James Hansen, have suggested that an even tougher target is needed to avert catastrophic climatic changes. Hansen is advocating aggressive limit to 350 ppm, lower than today's 385 ppm.

But even the 450 levels could be difficult to reach according to White House science adviser John Holdren who spoke on Monday at an event held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

He said the present trends indicate that climate change is happening faster than was thought earlier. He added that greenhouse gas emissions, land and ocean temperatures and the sea level are all rising faster than scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested.

Meanwhile, in a poll of climate experts commissioned by the London Guardian nearly 9 out of 10 respondents said the the world won't be able to reach the 2-degree-Celsius target by the end of the century.

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