labels: economy - general, union budget 2004 (feb 2004)
The Budget-2004-2005news
Uday Chatterjee
04 February 2004

Having played his aces and trump cards in his mini budget announced earlier, Finance Minister Jaswant Singh was left with a six of spades and a five of hearts to score a slam. Although he fell short of a slam, the contract has been secured. Singh has managed to spread the aura of 'gross national contentment' and he looks well set to present the regular budget four months later.

The good thing about the budget was the announcement that inflation is being tackled and is likely to be contained at 4.8 per cent. The better thing is that in the current fiscal the GDP is slated to grow at 7.5 to 8 percent. The best thing is that the fiscal deficit has been brought down from 5.9 per cent to 4.8 per cent-a major clean up act.

According to some analysts, the clean up of the fiscal deficit could be the result of a Rs 11,000 crore cut in expenditure and some creative accounting but Jaswant Singh is an honourable man and he deserves all the credit and good wishes to bring down the deficit to 4.4 per cent in the next fiscal. If that happens, India could seriously consider going for capital account convertibility.

Jaswant has sent the government babus laughing all the way to the banks. Effective from April 1, 2004, government employees will benefit on account of 50 per cent of the dearness allowance (DA) being merged with basic pay. Currently, the DA amounts to around 59 per cent of the basic pay. The hit to the exchequer will be Rs 3,500 crore, which will go in to the pockets of the Government babus and their wives who can now spend more to stimulate the economy further. The danger here is that state government employees will now demand their pound of flesh from bankrupt state governments.

The government's net tax revenues are expected to exceed the Budget target by Rs 3,370 crore. Non-tax revenues have also exceeded the Budget estimate by Rs 5,722 crore, mainly due to the dividends paid by public sector undertakings.

The revised estimate for disinvestment receipts, too, is higher "as we expect the 10 per cent sale of ONGC and GAIL to be completed before March 31," said the Expenditure Secretary, D. Swarup,

The Government has also achieved an expenditure reduction of Rs 11,143 crore, relative to the Budget estimate, with non-Plan spending being curtailed sharply. Through these measures "the Government has demonstrated its resolve about fiscal consolidation by performing better than the budgeted targets", says the finance minister.

The budgetary exercise yesterday was essentially a vote-on-account and no changes in the tax structure were proposed. However, the finance minister spelt out his intentions on the contentment front by stating that matters like standard deduction and ceiling on income tax needed to be revisited. Tax exemption on long term capital gains from sales of listed shares acquired after 2003 were extended for a further period of three years. These measures require amendments to the Income-Tax Act, which will have to wait till a new government presents a full-fledged Budget.

Without making any financial commitment the minister announced a series of measures for the farm, health, power, water development, tourism sector with specific schemes awarded to states which are yet not beholden to the NDA alliance. Singh has thus succeeded in pleasing all sections of the society, such as India Inc, small scale entrepreneurs, the rich and the middle-class, farmers and the rural folk, as also the country's poor.

Some time back, leader of the opposition, Sonia Gandhi, had remarked that the NDA's schemes were like the dreams of Mungeri Lal - the fictional TV character modelled on the lines of Walter Mittty, the perpetual day dreamer. It was today Jaswant Singh's turn to retort and he did it by saying "Mungeri Lal ko bahut dhoonda, kahi nahi mile. Koi unko agar mile, to kah dijiyega ki unke haseen sapne sakaar huwey." (I looked for Mungeri Lal, but could not get him.. If somebody happens to meet him, he should be told that his sweet dreams have come true).

How much of Singh's dreams Mungeri will buy will be known at election time, which is a few moths from now. The advantage however, rests with Singh.


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The Budget-2004-2005