One thing you may expect of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project – India will neither yes or no, and neither will Iran accept the fact that India is finally out of the project, says Rajiv Singh.

New Delhi: One thing you may expect of the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project – India will neither yes or no, and neither will Iran accept the fact that India is finally out of the project. Strategic compulsions for both to maintain a state of limbo on this issue are just too many. Now, once again, India has expressed its willingness to be part of the project even as Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, readies himself for a visit to New Delhi in the coming week.

''We are interested and it is very much on the agenda,'' Indian government sources are quoted as saying in reference to the project.

Negotiations on the pipeline have for long been stuck over the issue of pricing and security. ''There are issues that need to be resolved,'' sources said, suggesting that this was a project that required patience.

The Iran–Pakistan–India gas pipeline, also known as the IPI pipeline or the Peace pipeline, is a proposed 2,775-kilometre (1,724 mile) pipeline to deliver natural gas from Iran to Pakistan and India.

Given the failure of India and Iran to settle matters to their satisfaction and India's indeterminate stance on its participation in the project, Iran floated the China bogey in April 2008, saying Mainland China had expressed an interest to participate. This was immediately picked up by Pakistan, which suggested that this would be a very good idea as it would provide a stable partner to the project and also solve the problem of continued Indian dithering. 

In September 2009, Iran's Mehr news agency quoted a Pakistani diplomat as saying "India has definitely quit the IPI gas pipeline deal, in favour of Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement for energy security. Iranian officials clarified that India was yet to make an official declaration.

The issue, government sources said, is very likely to figure in the bilateral parley between Indian external affairs minister SM Krishna and Mottaki. They also said that both sides will hold detailed discussions on the subject at the meeting of the joint working group on energy which is expected to be held soon.

In fact, Mottaki's delegation will also contain senior representatives from the petroleum sector.

The pipe dream
The proposed pipeline will start from Asalouyeh in Iran and stretch over 1100 kilometres through that country. The pipeline will be supplied from the Iranian South Pars field.

The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per annum, which is expected to be raised later to 55 bcm.

The construction of the pipeline is expected to cost $7.5 billion.

In negotiations so far, India has agreed to give Pakistan a transit fee of $200 million per year, for allowing passage of the pipeline through that country.

In Pakistan, the pipeline will pass through the provinces of Baluchistan and Sind.

One of the many reasons for continued Indian dithering on the matter has been the volatile security situation in the two Pakistani provinces the pipeline is supposed to pass through – in particular Balochistan.

Not only is this province and it surrounding areas the crucible in which much of the current war on terror is focussed, but the Sunni dominated province has been feeding secessionist sentiments and militants in adjoining Iranian province of Sistan-Balochistan.

Iran is a Shia dominant country.

Balochi separatists have been crossing the border and clashing repeatedly with Iranian paramilitaries in an attempt to unite the Iranian part of Balochistan with its Pakistani counterpart. In a recent bomb explosion a militant Balochi organisation, Jundollah, killed several prominent members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran openly accused Pakistan of harbouring the terrorists linked to this organisation and acting in cahoots with British and US intelligence organisations to further their activities. These charges were hotly denied by the Pakistanis, who subsequently picked up some members, purportedly belonging to the Jundollah, as a token gesture.

The Iranian interior minister visited Pakistan soon after the attack asking it hand over Abdul Malik Rigi, the leader of the Jundollah group, which he said Pakistan was sheltering on its territory.

In a constant accusatory mode with respect to involvement of other countries in Balochistan, that is India, Pakistan is still trying to get over the embarrassment of having to explain to Iran the lack of its own involvement with terror outfits operating from its side of the Balochi border.

 The Pakistan Taliban, which operate in these areas with impunity, have openly stated time and again that they will target India once they are through dealing with the Islamabad establishment and the United States.  The IPI gas pipeline will become the most obvious target for such forces once the current pressure on them begins to ease.

Blowing hot and cold
India and Iran, too, are not sitting on the same side of the fence, with Iran openly accusing India of siding with the United States and the West in its ongoing tussle with them over its nuclear programme.

India, in turn, has no reason to be particularly pleased with continued Iranian meddling in matters concerning Kashmir at forums such as the Organisation of Islamic Countries.

In turn, Iran recognises that rubbing India, an emerging power on the world stage, on the wrong side is suicidal, given the constant threat of 'regime change' it faces from implacable foes, such as Israel.

India is also one of the biggest markets for its petroleum and gas products.

Against India, China may always be available as a game spoiler, but the logistic challenges of supplying China with gas and petroleum are immense as compared to India, a market that lies in its immediate neighbourhood.

Given all these variables, it may be with good reason that India continues to blow hot and cold on the matter. Without any resolution in sight for myriad security and geo-political issues, India may like to play the patience game even as it sends out assurances that it will join the pipeline once meaningful solutions to current problems are evident.

Till such time, the IPI gas pipeline - for India, and possibly Iran - will remain just a pipe dream.