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As
the Tata Steel board is set to meet to discuss the counter-bid
Corus Group by Brazilian steelmaker CSN to firm up its
own response, what are the realistic options before the
Indian company? Having come this far with such a bold
move, celebrated by international media as a sure sign
of India Inc''s coming of age, the Tata Group is not expected
to back out without a fight.
CSN
has started its due diligence exercise on Corus and is
likely to complete its discussions with Corus management
before this weekend. Since Corus had already scheduled
a shareholders'' meeting on 4 December to discuss the Tata
Steel offer when CSN made its counter-bid, the Brazilian
steel maker will have to announce a firm offer over the
next couple of weeks.
The
first, and preferred, option for Tata Steel would be to
match CSN''s offer of 475 pence per share of Corus Group.
All indications are that the Corus management would prefer
Tata Steel to CSN, if the offers are not very different.
Hence an offer to match CSN''s bid would most likely help
Corus management to stick with Tata Steel.
But
this strategy is most likely to invite a higher bid from
CSN and may also encourage other steel companies like
Severstal or Novolipetsk to enter the fray. This could
lead to more speculative buying of Corus shares and push
the price further up.
There
are rumours that CSN has already struck agreements with
leading institutional shareholders of Corus to share the
gains from a bidding war between Tata Steel and Corus.
Such agreements are not illegal as long as they are transparent
and disclosed in time.
Hence
a safer, though more costly, option would be to make a
sufficiently higher offer which would dissuade CSN and
other potential bidders from prolonging the bidding war.
Such an offer would be a final ''take it or leave it'' offer
which would also test the commitment of Corus management
to an alliance with Tata Steel.
To
pull off such a ''killer-bid'', Tata Steel would need to
raise additional financial resources. The company is already
understood to have sounded out its main bankers for stretching
the credit limits offered earlier to finance the Corus
deal.
Given
the financial strength of Tata Steel and the backing of
the Tata Group,
increasing the limits by 10 to 20 per cent would not be
difficult at all. More difficult would be the task to
fight possible downgrades by rating agencies, which could
affect the company''s fund raising plans to finance organic
expansion and Tata Steel''s own shareholders may also be
not very happy with the higher financial risk.
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